2027 Election: Peter Obi Projected to Win 8 States, Full List Emerges
- A group called the Political Intelligence Group released a forecast on how the 2027 presidential race may shape up under current conditions
- Peter Obi, the NDC presidential candidate for the 2027 elections, was projected to win eight states if the election were held today
- The group warned that the political balance could shift significantly before votes are cast in the 2027 presidential election
PAY ATTENTION: Mark Legit.ng as a preferred source, and our content will appear higher in your Google feed!
Legit.ng journalist Ridwan Adeola Yusuf has over nine years of experience covering politics, elections, and governance in Nigeria and Africa.
FCT, Abuja - A group called the Political Intelligence Group (PIG) on Tuesday, September 1, 2026, released a forecast projecting that Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), would win eight states if the 2027 presidential election were held under current political conditions.
Legit.ng reports that the projection, published by Politico.ng, assessed the present political landscape to estimate how support is currently distributed among the three major presidential contenders.
Source: Twitter
The group noted that its findings reflect conditions as they stand today, and that the balance of power could shift considerably before votes are cast in 2027.
President Bola Tinubu's projected tally of 20 states gives him a clear numerical advantage, with the forecast placing him firmly in control of the south-west while also crediting him with wins outside his home region.
Atiku Abubakar, the flagbearer of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), is expected to hold significant influence across parts of northern Nigeria, consistent with his performance in previous presidential contests.
Peter Obi's projected base
Obi is forecast to win eight states along with the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), with Edo state among the territories where he is expected to come out on top. The projection reflects the support he built during the 2023 presidential election, when he performed strongly in several parts of the country, particularly in the south-east and among urban voters.
The NDC chieftain's campaign has continued to resonate with voters looking for a change in leadership style, with economic management, public accountability and government efficiency expected to remain central to his message heading into 2027. Analysts, however, note that his main challenge lies in expanding beyond the regions where his support is already concentrated.
What could change before 2027 election
The group cautioned that several factors could alter the projected outcomes dramatically. Opposition cooperation or a formal coalition between rival parties could redraw the electoral map and shift the advantage away from President Tinubu. Defections, the choice of running mates and the organisational strength of each party's structure were also flagged as variables capable of influencing the final result.
Religion and ethnicity are expected to play a role, as candidates look to assemble geographically and demographically balanced tickets. At the same time, voters may place greater weight on pressing issues such as economic hardship, security challenges and employment when deciding who earns their support.
Source: Getty Images
The states PIG tipped Peter Obi to win are highlighted below:
- FCT
- Nasarawa
- Edo
- Enugu
- Ebonyi
- Delta
- Abia
- Anambra
Read more on Peter Obi
- ADC presidential ticket: Amaechi makes strategic move amid Atiku-Obi debate
- Did Kwankwaso agree to be Peter Obi’s running mate in 2027? Here is what we know
- JAMB 2026: Peter Obi speaks out for UTME candidates over alleged system failures in Nigeria
- "Pray for Peter Obi": Prophetess releases prophecy on Nigerian opposition leader, video draws attention
- Peter Obi declares what he will do to northerners if he becomes Nigeria's president in 2027
Obi 'not interested in Nigeria's break-up'
Earlier, Legit.ng reported that Obi firmly denied claims that he harbours any agenda to break up Nigeria, pushing back against accusations made by a former northern governor.
Ali Modu Sheriff, a former governor of Borno state, had levelled serious allegations against Obi after the ex-Labour Party chieftain called on President Tinubu to resign or step aside due to the country's worsening security situation.
Obi rejected the characterisation entirely, pointing to his personal visits to some of the most conflict-affected communities in northern Nigeria as evidence that he is committed to the welfare of all Nigerians, regardless of region.
Source: Legit.ng
