2027 Election: Tinubu Projected to Win 20 States, Full List Emerges
- A new political forecast has projected how President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar, and Peter Obi could perform if the 2027 presidential election were held today
- The Political Intelligence Group named Tinubu as the leading candidate, with a projected win in Kano raising eyebrows among political observers
- Tinubu is projected to reclaim Lagos in 2027, a state he lost to Peter Obi during the 2023 presidential election
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Legit.ng journalist Ridwan Adeola Yusuf has over nine years of experience covering politics, elections, and governance in Nigeria and Africa.
FCT, Abuja - A new political forecast has projected President Bola Tinubu winning 20 states in the 2027 presidential election, with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar taking nine states and Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate Peter Obi securing eight.
Legit.ng reports that the projection comes from the Political Intelligence Group (PIG), which assessed the current political landscape to determine how the three leading figures could perform if the election were conducted under today's conditions. The group cautioned that the political situation could shift considerably before polling day.
Source: Twitter
Tinubu projected to dominate south-west
According to the forecast seen by Legit.ng on Tuesday, September 1, 2026, Tinubu's biggest advantage comes from the South-West, where all six states are expected to fall in his favour. His long-standing influence across the region makes it his most reliable electoral base.
One of the more striking elements of the projection is Tinubu's expected victory in Kano, one of Nigeria's most populous states and a key battleground during presidential contests. A Kano win would give the president a significant northern foothold and bolster his chances of assembling a broad national coalition beyond his South-West base.
The forecast also projects Tinubu reclaiming Lagos state, which he lost to Peter Obi during the 2023 presidential election. Lagos remains central to his political identity and is among the country's most consequential electoral territories.
Atiku, the presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), is projected to retain a firm grip on parts of northern Nigeria, while Obi is expected to hold selected areas where his 2023 performance was strongest.
Source: Getty Images
PIG warns Tinubu’s 2027 projection could change
PIG acknowledged that the projection reflects the present political landscape and is not a final verdict on the 2027 race. Several factors could influence voter behaviour before the actual election.
Economic conditions are likely to weigh heavily on voters' minds. Inflation, employment levels, security, infrastructure and the general cost of living could all shape how Nigerians assess the Tinubu administration by 2027. The government's ability to communicate its policy achievements is also expected to become a central campaign issue.
Regional, ethnic and religious considerations may also factor into political calculations, as they have in previous Nigerian presidential elections, though these dynamics typically compete with economic grievances and political loyalty.
The states PIG tipped Tinubu to win are highlighted below:
- Zamfara
- Kano
- Yobe
- Borno
- Bauchi
- Plateau
- Kwara
- Oyo
- Ogun
- Lagos
- Osun
- Ekiti
- Ondo
- Kogi
- Benue
- Imo
- Cross River
- Rivers
- Akwa Ibom
- Bayelsa
Read more on 2027 election
- 2027 election: Peter Obi speaks on rumoured agreement with Goodluck Jonathan to sack President Tinubu
- "2027 Not turn of south east": Umahi declares as Peter Obi releases bold statement
- 2027 election: VDM warns Nigerians about Goodluck Jonathan and PDP, “he is sponsored by Tinubu”
Issa's prophecy favours Tinubu
Earlier, Legit.ng reported that Prophet Samuel Issa said President Tinubu will win re-election in 2027, claiming he received a divine vision of the outcome of Nigeria's next presidential contest.
Issa shared the claim in a Facebook post titled '2027 Presidential Election Prophecy', saying he saw Tinubu emerge victorious at the polls and return to Aso Villa for a second term.
Source: Legit.ng
