2027 Election: Atiku’s Camp Reacts to Tinubu Victory Prediction in 20 States
- Paul Ibe, Atiku Abubakar's spokesperson, dismissed a poll projecting President Bola Ahmed Tinubu winning 20 states in the 2027 elections
- The Political Intelligence Group forecast placed ex-Vice President Atiku at nine states and Peter Gregory Obi at eight, with Tinubu leading all three candidates
- Ibe raised pointed questions about the poll's sample size, methodology, and verification, calling it 'political messaging dressed up as research'
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Legit.ng journalist Ridwan Adeola Yusuf has over nine years of experience covering politics, elections, public affairs, and governance in Nigeria and Africa.
FCT, Abuja - Atiku Abubakar's spokesperson, Paul Ibe, on Wednesday night, September 2, dismissed a Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng projection that put President Bola Tinubu ahead in the 2027 presidential race, questioning the credibility and transparency of the forecast.
The projection had assigned Tinubu 20 states, compared to nine for African Democratic Congress (ADC) flagbearer Atiku Abubakar and eight for Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate Peter Obi, based on an assessment of the current political landscape.
Source: Getty Images
Atiku's camp demands answers on methodology
Writing on his verified X (formerly Twitter) page, Ibe said the forecast was "not a credible substitute for a properly conducted opinion poll" and challenged the Political Intelligence Group to explain how it arrived at its figures.
He wrote:
"The so-called Political Intelligence Group must tell Nigerians plainly: what methodology produced these Emilokan contraption figures? How many Nigerians were surveyed? In which states? How were respondents selected? What was the sample size? When was the survey conducted? What questions were asked? What was the margin of error? What independent organisation verified the exercise? And, most importantly, where is the underlying data?"
Ibe also questioned the timing of the projection, noting that political alliances in Nigeria were still shifting and that the 2027 election remained months away.
He said:
"Curiously, the projection conveniently places the incumbent APC candidate in the lead while reducing the leading opposition contenders to predetermined electoral territories. Yet Nigeria's political landscape is undergoing major realignments, alliances are still evolving, and the 2027 election is months away.
"Even the group itself acknowledges that substantial political and economic developments could alter its projection."
Source: Twitter
Ibe warns against 2027 election rigging
Ibe went further to warn that publishing unexplained figures ahead of an election risked creating a false sense that the outcome had already been decided, which he suggested could help pave the way for rigging.
"Nigerians must be particularly vigilant against any attempt to manufacture a narrative of an already-decided election to pave the way for the prospects of rigging by the Tinubu-led APC government," he said.
The ADC supporter called on the Political Intelligence Group to release its full methodology, sampling framework, and underlying data for independent scrutiny.
"If this is genuinely independent political research, then PIG must publish the methodology, the data, the sampling framework and the evidence. Let Nigerians and independent statisticians scrutinise it. Otherwise, this looks less like a scientific forecast and more like political messaging dressed up as research," Ibe added.
He concluded that no polling organisation or political group had the authority to determine the Nigerian people's choice before a single vote was cast, insisting the 2027 election "must be decided by Nigerians, not by opaque projections, manufactured narratives or statistical theatrics."
Read Atiku's camp's post on the 2027 election projection below via X:
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Tinubu gains spiritual backing
Earlier, Legit.ng reported that the Supreme Council of the Tijaniyya worldwide prayed for Tinubu, asking God to grant him good health, peace, and continued guidance in leading Nigeria.
The prayers were offered during a condolence visit to President Tinubu at the State House in Abuja, according to a statement released by Sunday Dare, the Nigerian leader's special adviser on media and public communications.
Source: Legit.ng
