How Atiku’s Subsidy Move Could Give Tinubu Fresh 2027 Trouble, Analyst Shares
- Journalist Oluwafemi Popoola analysed how Atiku Abubakar is building his 2027 campaign around fuel subsidy and the cost of living
- Atiku proposed a production-based petrol subsidy for domestic refineries, prompting a direct response from the presidency
- Popoola examined how late former President Muhammadu Buhari's death, opposition fragmentation, and macroeconomic data could shape the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu-Atiku contest
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Legit.ng journalist Ridwan Adeola Yusuf has over nine years of experience covering politics, elections, public affairs, and governance in Nigeria and Africa.
FCT, Abuja - Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar is sharpening his political attacks on President Bola Tinubu's economic record as the 2027 presidential race begins to take shape, according to a recent analysis by journalist Oluwafemi Popoola.
Popoola, in a statement shared with Legit.ng, argued that Atiku's recent public engagements reflect a deliberate shift toward a more confrontational campaign posture, with fuel subsidy removal and foreign exchange unification emerging as the central targets.
Source: Getty Images
Atiku's subsidy proposal and presidency's response
Atiku has said he would restore a form of petrol subsidy if he wins the 2027 election, but has been careful to distance his proposal from the previous import-dependent system.
He described his alternative as a production-based subsidy for domestic refineries, captured in the phrase "the subsidy will follow the barrel."
He also promised to reopen Nigeria's land borders and develop southern ports to cut transportation costs, particularly for goods heading to northern Nigeria.
The presidency pushed back. Special adviser on media and public communications, Sunday Dare, said the land borders were already open, pointing to the reopening of the Kamba border as evidence, and asked Atiku to specify which restrictions he intended to lift.
Popoola argued that Atiku's positions go beyond economic policy and connect directly with what ordinary Nigerians pay for petrol, food, transport and school fees, areas where the cost of macroeconomic reform is most visible.
The political arithmetic of economic pain
Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele has said the removal of fuel subsidy mobilised N15.8 trillion between June 2023 and December 2025, comprising N5.4 trillion for the Federal Government and N10.4 trillion shared among states and local governments. Incremental expenditure during the period reached N30.64 trillion, with additional resources of N20.4 trillion.
Popoola said those figures could sharpen a question already on many Nigerians' minds: what have citizens actually received in return for the hardship? He acknowledged that the Tinubu administration has pointed to improvements in foreign reserves, now estimated at roughly $56 to $57 billion compared to around $28 to $29 billion when the President took office, alongside gains in investor confidence and capital market performance.
But Popoola was direct about the limits of that argument:
"A country can have healthier reserves while its citizens are still struggling to buy dinner."
Northern politics and opposition landscape
Furthermore, Popoola examined how the death of former President Muhammadu Buhari may have changed political dynamics in northern Nigeria. He said Atiku could attempt to channel dissatisfaction with Tinubu among northern voters, though he cautioned that Buhari's supporters would not automatically shift allegiance. He noted that Atiku communicated his subsidy proposal in Hausa, which he read as a direct appeal to ordinary northern voters.
On the broader opposition, Popoola said the fragmentation involving Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso, both of whom have joined the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), has made it harder to mount a unified challenge to Tinubu. He concluded that the 2027 contest could ultimately come down to whether voters judge Tinubu's reforms worth the cost, and whether Atiku can offer a genuinely credible alternative.
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Atiku fires back at Tinubu
Earlier, Legit.ng reported that Phrank Shaibu, the senior special assistant on public communication to Atiku, released a strongly worded statement on September 1, 2026, hitting back at Tinubu after the president allegedly devoted a large portion of a recent statement to attacking Atiku's economic position without mentioning him by name.
Shaibu said Tinubu's refusal to name Atiku did not change the fact that the statement was a direct response to the former vice president's push to reduce fuel costs for ordinary Nigerians.
Source: Legit.ng
