2027 Elections: Analyst Explains Salihu’s “High-Stakes Gamble” in Adamawa Power Play
- Adamawa politics faces quiet alignments and ethnic calculations ahead of the 2027 general elections
- Political analyst Philip Danyola spoke on the development, saying that Mustapha Salihu's outreach to Gov Fintiri signals a strategic power struggle within the APC
- According to Danyola, Governor Fintiri's influence is reshaping party dynamics, with emerging rivalries complicating the political landscape
Phillip Danyola, a Kaduna-based public affairs commentator, said politics in Adamawa state has entered a delicate phase marked by quiet alignments, ethnic calculations and elite manoeuvres ahead of the 2027 elections.
The political analyst, in a statement made available to Legit.ng on Saturday, February 7, said beneath the calm surface of party activities, a consequential struggle for control of the future is already underway, and at the centre of it stands Comrade Mustapha Salihu, the All Progressives Congress (APC) national vice chairman for the northeast.
Source: UGC
According to Danyola, what is unfolding is not merely the rumour of defection or rapprochement across party lines; it is a high-stakes gamble over who controls the levers of power in Adamawa ahead of 2027.
He said Salihu’s alleged outreach towards Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) speaks less to ideological convergence and more to the cold logic of political survival in a state where ethnicity, succession and structure often outweigh party loyalty.
Adamawa 2027: Ethnic calculations and party tensions
Within APC circles, there is growing anxiety over perceived Fulani dominance of the party’s hierarchy in Adamawa, Danyola said.
According to the analyst who cited multiple party insiders, Salihu’s calculations appear rooted in the belief that Governor Fintiri’s solid backing among minority ethnic groups could serve as a counterweight in future internal power struggles.
"This thinking, whether sound or misguided, reflects a deeper truth about Adamawa politics: ethnicity remains the unspoken currency of influence," Danyola said.
Governor Fintiri’s own political trajectory has sharpened these divisions, Danyola said. According to him, the governor's controversial restructuring of traditional emirates—most notably the fragmentation of the Adamawa and Mubi emirates—has elevated his standing among minority communities while alienating significant segments of the Fulani elite, he said.
"The resulting legal battles over the status of the Adamawa Emirate have further politicised identity, turning cultural institutions into contested political symbols," the political commentator added.
Adamawa 2027: Signals and political permutations
Danyola further stated that Governor Fintiri’s recent public remarks expressing openness to “political opportunities” cannot be dismissed as casual rhetoric.
"In the hyper-sensitive environment of Adamawa politics, such statements are read as signals, he said. For APC power brokers already uneasy about internal competition, they sounded like an invitation—or a warning," he said.
Meanwhile, the analyst added that Salihu’s sense of urgency appears further complicated by the rising profile of Tijjani Galadima, the Yola-born Chief Executive Officer of the Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF). His words:
"Galadima’s growing prominence, bolstered by links to networks associated with the National Security Adviser, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, has unsettled established interests, he said. Early governorship permutations have a way of triggering pre-emptive strikes, and Salihu’s manoeuvres fit that familiar pattern."
According to Danyola, the symbolism of Governor Fintiri hosting Galadima at a civic reception and publicly praising him did not go unnoticed.
While officially framed as goodwill, the gesture was widely interpreted as a political rapprochement—one that potentially aligns PDP power with influential APC-linked networks, he said.
"For Salihu’s camp, this development may have confirmed fears of an emerging alternative power bloc capable of redefining the 2027 contest," Danyola added.
Adamawa: Strategic positioning ahead of 2027
Danyola noted that it is within the current political context that Salihu’s conspicuous alleged warmth towards Fintiri must be understood.
"His high-profile attendance at events organised in the governor’s honour, reportedly involving significant financial support and logistical showmanship, reads less like courtesy and more like calculated signalling, he said. In Adamawa politics, optics are policy, and silence is often strategy," he said.
Nevertheless, the analyst noted that neither Salihu nor Governor Fintiri has publicly acknowledged any defection talks or political pact.
He, however, said that politics is rarely driven by confirmations, adding that it is shaped by patterns, gestures and timing.
"And the pattern here suggests an elite chess game already several moves deep," he added.
2027: How Adamawa's political future may be settled
Meanwhile, Danyola predicted that with more than a year to formal campaigns, the real battles for Adamawa’s political future may be fought—and possibly settled—long before the electorate is called upon to vote.
According to the analyst, what is at stake is not just party dominance but the architecture of power itself: who controls structures, who balances ethnic interests, and who emerges as kingmaker—or king—by 2027.
"Salihu’s gamble may yet pay off, or it may backfire spectacularly, Danyola said. But one thing is certain: the quiet struggle for Adamawa has begun, and its outcome will be decided not in rallies or manifestos, but in the shadowy intersections of ethnicity, ambition and elite alignment," the Kaduna-based public affairs commentator concluded.
Source: Twitter
Adamawa: Fintiri unveils new book
Meanwhile, Legit.ng earlier reported that Adamawa state was in a celebratory mood on Sunday, February 2, 2026, as Governor Fintiri unveiled a new book detailing his political journey, leadership style, achievements, and the challenges faced during his administration.
The book, titled Fintiri: The Man They Could Not Stop, was launched at a well-attended ceremony that drew high-profile dignitaries from across Nigeria, including governors, traditional rulers, religious leaders, and security officials.
Among those in attendance were the Governor of Nasarawa state and chairman of the occasion, Abdullahi Audu Sule, former Senate President, Dr Abubakar Bukola Saraki, who delivered the keynote address; Catholic Bishop of Sokoto Diocese, Most Reverend Father Matthew Hassan Kukah, who reviewed the book; and the Governor of Bauchi state, Bala Mohammed.
Source: Legit.ng
