Naturally, Nigerians, especially political analysts, were stunned on Saturday, May 7, to hear that Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu's former campaign director-general, Abdulmumin Jibrin, announced his defection from the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Since then, there have been talks over what this might mean for the national leader of the ruling party who is seriously interested in taking over President Muhammadu Buhari's seat in 2023.
Legit.ng has put together at least five perceived consequences Jibrin's defection will cause ahead of the APC's primaries and the forthcoming presidential election.
1. Question mark on APC
There is no doubt that the latest decision of Jibrin places a strong question mark on the ruling party which is very confident (to the point of boasting) of claiming most, if not all, the elective offices in 2023, including the presidency.
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Again, this defection begs the question, how well has the APC resolved its internal crisis and appeased its aggrieved members across the country?
2. Tinubu presidency
Moreover, there is doubt if the whole hitherto impressive idea of Tinubu presidency will see the light of day as the party's wall begins its first major crack before the elections.
More than ever, Jagaban has to work a lot harder to prove how powerful he is in the APC and influential in the north.
If the so-called intervention move Tinubu has begun between Governor Abdullahi Ganduge and Jibrin does not yield the expected outcome, a lot might go wrong for him.
3. Tinubu might lose face in the north
Speaking about the northern region, the very fact that Jibrin hails from Kano, a state where Tinubu is both famous and loved, the whole atmosphere seems not to be good for the former Lagos governor.
The permutation is simple but big in essence: if a politician as powerful as Jibrin who is a native of this equally strong APC-owned northern state could dump the party at this time, then Tinubu might just be on his way to losing his ground perhaps in most parts of the region.
4. Better odds for PDP
Of course, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) will not fail to take advantage of this scenario. One can be sure that the number one opposition party in Nigeria will make profitable use of the entire saga in its campaign.
Even more, if Jibrin defects to the PDP, it will be tactics for tactics when presidential rallies begin proper ahead of 2023.
5. The Osinbajo option
If all of these play out, luck and circumstances will project Vice President Yemi Osinbajo as the next option. By a lot of considerations, Osinbajo is the next powerful presidential hopeful after Tinubu.
The vice president himself had stated that God placed him in the office so that he will use the experience when and if he emerges president in 2023.
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Osinbajo had been described as the most competent and credible person to step into President Muhammadu Buhari's shoes after the expiration of his tenure in 2023.
Legit.ng reported that this was disclosed on Sunday, April 10, in Lagos during the pre-declaration press conference organised by the Osinbajo Southwest Group (OSG).
Speaking on behalf of the group, Hon. Olawale Shodeinde said the sole objective of the convergence was to come together as Nigerians and collectively speak in unity and one accord.