Dapo Abiodun, Gbenga Daniel, and Ogun State’s Theatre of Political Deceit by ‘Toks Oguntuga

Editor's note: In this piece, political analyst Dr. 'Toks Oguntuga dissects the quiet warfare between Dapo Abiodun and Gbenga Daniel, exposing the ambitions, betrayals, and looming power struggle shaping Ogun state’s future.

In the rich tapestry of Yoruba political myth, a handshake has never been a mere greeting. It is a performance, a pact, sometimes even a prelude to betrayal. In Ogun state, where power is both currency and curse, the velvet handshakes exchanged between Governor Dapo Abiodun (DA) and Senator Gbenga Daniel (OGD) anytime their paths cross always sent ripples through the underbrush of the ruling APC. But beneath the smiles and camera flashes lies a coiled menace, silent, poised, venomous. This is not just cordial exchanges between political allies; it is a theatrical gesture masking a festering rivalry. One is the seated custodian of the present; the other, a calculating maestro of the past. Their palms may meet, but their ambitions clash like tectonic plates. What Ogun is currently witnessing between the two is not unity. It is the calm hiss before the strike. A reckoning looms ahead of 2027, and these handshakes may well be the opening act in a political play laced with poison.

The roots of the rift: From brotherhood to brinkmanship

Once allies under the sprawling tent of the All Progressives Congress (APC), DA and OGD shared warm handshakes, whispered strategies, and public endorsements. But in politics, as in ancient kingdoms, alliances are as fragile as clay pots in a thunderstorm. Gbenga Daniel, Ogun State’s once-revered helmsman and political lion of Sagamu, had thrown his weight behind DA during the 2019 gubernatorial race like a kingmaker crowning a new monarch. Their union was forged in the fires of mutual necessity, cemented by their shared enmity towards the very vindictive Governor Ibikunle Amosun. As the ancient wisdom declares, the enemy of your enemy becomes your brother-in-arms.

But power has a short memory and a long shadow. After DA became governor and consolidated his reign, whispers grew louder in OGD’s camp that the support he had offered was being met with cold indifference. Strategic appointments bypassed his protégés. Dapo Abiodun did not deem it fit to give him even a single commissioner slot. Key party structures of the APC in Ogun State were stiffened against OGD’s influence. In fact, it is alleged that there is a standing instruction by the DA to party officials not to attend any political programme organised by OGD. Slowly, the soil grew fertile for conflict.

The APC powder keg: A political house of cards built upon quicksand

The APC in Ogun state has always resembled a magnificent but unstable mansion constructed from the fractured pieces of political history; an uneasy confederation of godfathers wielding ancient power, technocrats brandishing modern expertise, and political mercenaries carrying the battle scars of the defunct ACN, ANPP, CPC, and PDP. Now, those hairline cracks are widening into chasms that threaten to swallow the entire structure whole.

On one side of this epic battleground stands DA, master of the state treasury, wielding the mighty sword of incumbency, commanding the vast machinery of governmental power like a general commanding his legions. On the opposing flank stands OGD, a battle-tested political gladiator whose grassroots tentacles penetrate every village square and urban corner, whose cross-party goodwill spans many local government councils, whose Rolodex of loyalists reads like the guest list of political royalty across the entire state.

The party’s internal dynamics have begun to mirror a Shakespearean tragedy of epic proportions, with both political titans locked in an escalating silent cold war that threatens to explode into open combat long before the 2027 electoral Armageddon. Political insiders whisper tales of subtle character assassinations, double-faced loyalty oaths that crumble at first touch, and covert mobilisation strategies unfolding in key local governments like chess pieces moving across a cosmic board. To suggest that the APC in Ogun may implode soon would be an understatement. It is fracturing along the geological fault lines of naked ambition and spectacular betrayal.

What’s at stake: More than 2027

To the politically naive observer, this titanic struggle might appear as merely another ego-driven contest between two politicians. But such perception reveals profound ignorance of what truly hangs in the balance. At stake are the political soul of Ogun State and the political power to shape the future of Ogun’s political constellation.

Gbenga Daniel is no mere regional politician; he is a strategist whose influence extends far beyond state borders into the corridors of national power. Abiodun, meanwhile, harbours ambitions that soar far beyond the confines of Oke-Mosan, with rumours swirling around about his burning desire for the very senatorial seat that OGD currently occupies.

Herein lies the root of their silent cosmic conflict: Abiodun had envisioned installing a political puppet, some malleable rookie or lightweight politician whom he could manipulate like a master puppeteer before discarding after a single term in the Senate. Unfortunately for his grand schemes, destiny had other plans. With or without his imperial blessing in 2023, OGD conquered the APC primary for Ogun East with the efficiency of a political hurricane and emerged victorious as senator-elect, leaving DA’s carefully laid plans in smoking ruins. Since that fateful moment, their relationship has devolved into an elaborate cat-and-mouse game, with each protagonist circling the other like predators preparing for the final strike.

The 2023 electoral humiliation: A governor’s narrow escape from political death

Governor Dapo Abiodun holds the dubious distinction of being the governor with the most anaemic victory margin in the entire recorded history of Ogun State since democracy’s return in 1999, and this d@mn!ng assessment rests upon irrefutable, verifiable data that tells a story of political weakness.

Consider the governors who preceded him: In 1999, Olusegun Osoba crushed his PDP challenger with a commanding margin exceeding 125,000 votes, a political tsunami. In 2003, Gbenga Daniel dethroned Osoba with a devastating victory margin surpassing 217,000 votes, an electoral earthquake. During his 2007 re-election campaign, Daniel obliterated Ibikunle Amosun with a staggering margin exceeding 290,000 votes, a political massacre. In 2011, Amosun defeated Tunji Olurin by approximately 137,000 votes, a solid mandate. His 2015 re-election saw him triumph over Isiaka Nasiru Adegboyega with 105,548 votes, a respectable victory.

Then comes the DA era, and the numbers tell a tale of political mediocrity. In 2019, he barely limped past his closest rival, Adekunle Akinlade, with a pathetic margin of 19,317 votes, more of a political accident than a mandate. His 2023 re-election performance was even more catastrophic; he squeaked past his challenger, Ladi Adebutu, by a meagre 13,915 votes, barely enough to avoid a recount.

If there existed any flickering hope that his fractured relationship with OGD could be salvaged through political diplomacy, the 2023 re-election campaign extinguished it. Abiodun struggled like a drowning man fighting for air, largely due to widespread perceptions of his catastrophically mediocre first-term performance. In his paranoid political mind, he became convinced that his former allies had transformed into saboteurs, with OGD cast as the chief villain in this political thriller.

Having systematically ostracised OGD after his 2019 victory and demonstrating a nonchalant attitude to his senatorial ambitions in 2023, it is widely believed that OGD, while laser-focused on securing his own electoral victory in 2023, invested minimal energy in campaigning for the ungrateful DA. The incumbent governor had become such a political liability that even where OGD attempted to market him in Ogun East, he encountered fierce resistance. “You, we know and trust,” they declared to Daniel, “Dapo, we don’t know from Adam.”

The election results reflected this brutal sentiment with mathematical precision; they were absolutely abysmal. Governor Dapo suffered the ultimate political humiliation by losing his local government, Remo North. Whispers suggest he won his polling unit by merely two votes – two! Such a narrow escape speaks to one inescapable truth: his performance was so spectacularly underwhelming that even his own neighbours nearly rejected him.

Yet Governor Abiodun, trapped in his bubble of delusion, refused to accept this harsh reality. On the day INEC declared him winner, he stood at his country home in Iperu and screamed like a wounded lion: “Even those we thought were our friends worked against us!” Every accusatory finger pointed directly at OGD.

The Yayi factor

Barring supernatural intervention or acts of God, the next governor of Ogun State could very well be Senator Olamilekan “Yayi” Adeola, the formidable senator representing Ogun West. The political stars have aligned in his favour with almost mystical precision. He hails from the Yewa zone, a region that has been systematically denied the governorship since the return to democratic rule in 1999, creating a powerful narrative of historical justice. He enjoys the status of an unwavering Tinubu loyalist, a political asset more valuable than gold in today’s Nigeria. Most crucially, he commands a financial war chest so massive it dwarfs every other potential candidate’s resources combined.

However, political intelligence suggests that DA harbours deep resentment towards Yayi’s cordial relationship with OGD. Rumours swirl like political hurricanes that DA believes Yayi conspired with OGD in an elaborate scheme to sn@tch a ministerial appointment from under his nose by orchestrating the appointment of Iziaq Adekunle Salako, a former commissioner under Daniel’s administration, into President Tinubu’s cabinet. Salako hails from the Yewa axis of Ogun state, adding an interesting irony to this political intrigue. In the unforgiving mathematics of politics, when you befriend my enemy, you automatically become my enemy.

Currently, in a delicate balancing act worthy of a circus performer, Yayi allegedly maintains a cautious distance from open association with OGD to avoid provoking Governor Abiodun’s wrath. Yet any politically astute observer must recognise that if Yayi harbours genuine ambitions for 2027, he needs OGD’s political machinery far more desperately than he needs DA’s tainted blessing.

The evidence suggests that Abiodun has learned absolutely nothing from his 2023 near-death electoral experience. His performance remains spectacularly mediocre despite receiving double, perhaps triple, the revenue from the federation account compared to his predecessors. Therefore, he possesses no electoral magic capable of single-handedly anointing a victorious governorship candidate in 2027. In fact, a DA endorsement may prove to be a political kiss of death, an albatross around any candidate’s neck. Historical precedents support this grim assessment. He therefore needs not make an enemy of Yayi, like his predecessors made of their successors. It had never panned out well.

The final showdown: OGD’s senatorial re-election bid

One fact remains crystal clear amidst all the political fog: OGD is determined to return to the Senate in 2027 with the inevitability of sunrise. Governor Dapo Abiodun, following the predictable pattern of every two-term governor in Nigerian history, covets that same senatorial throne for himself. The question that will define Ogun’s political future is simple yet profound: Will he dare attempt to stop OGD? More importantly, does he possess the political firepower to stop him?

Political analysts argue that control of Ogun APC’s structural machinery will ultimately determine who receives the party’s golden ticket in 2027, not merely for the governorship, but for National Assembly seats and even future presidential alignments that could reshape Nigeria’s political landscape. This epic struggle transcends immediate political gains; it’s about cementing legacies, accumulating leverage, and playing the long game of political immortality that separates true statesmen from mere officeholders.

History provides a sobering lesson: OGD attempted to install a successor in 2015. He failed. Amosun attempted to control the APC structure in 2019 with the confidence of a political emperor, but the powers in Abuja, working through the then-party chairman Adams Oshiomhole, outmanoeuvred him with surgical precision. He lost that crucial political chess match and was forced to seek refuge on another platform, where he suffered yet another crushing defeat.

So the million-naira question echoes across Ogun’s political landscape: Who commands the superior advantage now? The Oracle or the Incumbent? Who is more likely to secure Abuja’s all-important blessing in this winner-takes-all political warfare?

Gbenga Daniel moves through Ogun’s political terrain with the confidence and precision of a man who knows every secret path, every hidden shortcut, every pressure point that matters. His connections don’t merely run deep. They penetrate the very bedrock of power, from ancient royal palaces where traditional authority still commands respect to dusty village squares, where real political decisions are forged over strategic games of ayo and politics-laced palm wine discussions that determine electoral outcomes. He commands an army of time-tested loyalists whose loyalty has been proven in multiple political battles, and he possesses an almost supernatural ability to reinvent himself, transforming seamlessly from AD intelligentsia to PDP powerbroker to APC master strategist without losing an ounce of his political potency.

But Abiodun, despite his obvious limitations, is no political lightweight deserving casual dismissal. Though he may be a hedonist lacking OGD’s renowned political wisdom and strategic depth, he controls the state treasury, that powerful weapon capable of purchasing loyalty and influencing outcomes even in distant Abuja. He commands the state media narrative with the authority of a propaganda minister, and most crucially, he possesses the power to determine the timing of every significant political chess move within Ogun State’s borders. He may not possess Daniel’s leonine roar, but he strikes with the deadly precision of a cobra when his survival instincts are triggered.

The mythic battle approaches: Legacy versus incumbency

As Ogun’s political curtain draws toward 2027, the state is not preparing for a democratic exercise between the camps of DA and OGD. Rather, it is bracing for a Shakespearean showdown cloaked in the garments of civility. What looms ahead is not a clash of manifestos, but a slow-burning drama of betrayal, legacy, and calculated vengeance. Senator Gbenga Daniel, the seasoned conjurer of political tides, stands as the ghost of unfinished reckonings, while Governor Dapo Abiodun wields the might of incumbency like a monarch gripping a fragile sceptre. Their handshakes in the past are velvet gloves masking a steel gauntlet; behind every cordial pose lurks a serpent of ambition. The true contest will unfold not in the daylight of campaign trails, but in the shadows, where loyalty is for sale, where silence is weaponised, and where power changes hands not with ballots, but with backroom poison. This is not merely politics; this is the theatre of deceit. And the venom has already been loosed. Only the “snake charmer” in Aso Rock can save the day!

What do you think?

Will Gbenga Daniel reclaim his grip on Ogun’s political soul, or will Dapo Abiodun tighten his incumbency hold and script his own legacy?

'Toks Oguntuga is a seasoned academic researcher, strategic communication expert, political analyst, and speechwriter with a PhD in Presidential Crisis Rhetoric and over a decade of experience in high-stakes political and communication environments.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Legit.ng.

Proofreading by James Ojo, copy editor at Legit.ng.

Source: Legit.ng