Supercomputer Predicts New World Cup Winner After Dramatic First Round
- Opening round of the 2026 FIFA World Cup produced a record number of goals and several major upsets
- Cape Verde and DR Congo stunned pre-tournament favourites Spain and Portugal respectively
- Opta's supercomputer has revised its predictions and identified a new team most likely to lift the trophy
The first round of matches at the 2026 FIFA World Cup has already rewritten several expectations, forcing Opta's famous supercomputer to revise its projections for the eventual champions.
Before a ball was kicked, reigning European champions Spain were considered the favourites to conquer the expanded 48-team tournament, ahead of France, England and defending champions Argentina.
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However, after an opening round packed with surprises and historic moments, the data-driven model has changed its forecast and installed a new favourite to win football's biggest prize.
The tournament has produced entertainment on a remarkable scale. A total of 75 goals were scored across the first 24 matches, an average of 3.13 goals per game, setting a new record for the highest-scoring opening round in World Cup history.
Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe, Erling Haaland and Harry Kane all made early statements in the race for the Golden Boot, but it was the performances of several underdogs that generated the biggest headlines.
Opening round delivers major shocks
Tiny island nation Cape Verde produced the biggest surprise of the tournament by frustrating Spain in a goalless draw.
According to the BBC, Portugal also failed to live up to expectations as Cristiano Ronaldo and his teammates were held to a 1-1 draw by DR Congo.
Ghana needed a dramatic stoppage-time winner to edge Panama, while Ivory Coast defeated Ecuador to hand Africa its first victory of the tournament.
Elsewhere, Germany demolished Curaçao 7-1, England defeated Croatia 4-2, France overcame Senegal 3-1 and Norway eased past Iraq with a convincing 4-1 victory.
Historic moments across the tournament
Beyond the results, the opening round also produced several landmark moments.
Curaçao celebrated its first-ever goal at a World Cup despite suffering a heavy defeat against Germany. Livano Comenencia became the first player to score for the Caribbean nation on football's grandest stage.
Uzbekistan also entered the history books through Abbosbek Fayzullaev, whose goal against Colombia marked his country's first strike in World Cup history.
DR Congo enjoyed a similar milestone when Yoane Wissa found the net against Portugal, giving the central Africans their first World Cup goal since appearing under the name Zaire in 1974.
Spain pay price for Cape Verde setback
Prior to the tournament, Spain held a 16.1% probability of winning the World Cup according to Opta's simulations.
France followed with a 13% chance, while England stood at 11.2%. Argentina and Portugal completed the top five.
But Spain's failure to beat Cape Verde has significantly altered the picture.
Portugal's disappointing draw against DR Congo also damaged their prospects, while France and England strengthened their positions with impressive opening victories.
France emerge as new favourites
Following the completion of the first round, Opta's updated model now places France at the top of the rankings.
Didier Deschamps' side are given a 15.73% chance of becoming world champions.
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England have moved into second place with a 12.33% probability, narrowly ahead of Argentina on 12.28%.
Spain, who started the competition as favourites, have dropped to fourth despite remaining among the strongest contenders with a 12.08% chance.
Germany complete the top five with 6.43%, while Portugal have slipped further down after their disappointing start.
Why France have moved ahead
France's rise has been aided by their convincing victory over Senegal and favourable knockout probabilities.
According to the supercomputer, Les Bleus have a 76.08% chance of reaching the round of 16, a 52.08% probability of making the quarter-finals and a 37.23% chance of reaching the semi-finals.
Their likelihood of appearing in the final stands at 24.59%, the highest among all teams.
England, meanwhile, boast the highest probability of winning their group at 91.54%, but trail France in the overall race for the title.
Argentina remain firmly in contention after Lionel Messi's sensational hat-trick against Algeria, while Spain's stock has fallen despite still possessing one of the strongest squads in the competition.
Norway among biggest movers
One of the more interesting developments involves Norway. Led by Erling Haaland, the Scandinavians have quietly emerged as dark horses after their commanding victory over Iraq.
The supercomputer gives Norway a 4.68% chance of lifting the trophy, placing them above traditional giants such as Belgium.
Colombia have also entered the top 10 after beating Uzbekistan and now possess a 2.88% chance of becoming world champions.
Supercomputer predicts Czechia vs South Africa
Legit.ng previously reported that Opta's supercomputer had run 10,000 simulations ahead of the World Cup clash between Czechia and South Africa.
The model gave Czechia a 52.9% chance of victory, compared to South Africa's 23.3%, while a draw was rated at 23.8%. Bafana Bafana were also set to be without suspended duo Siphephelo Sithole and Themba Zwane for the encounter.
Source: Legit.ng
