Tinubu, Atiku or Peter Obi? Report Predicts Winner in FCT, Zamfara, 3 Other States
- A political assessment examined the 2027 presidential chances of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi across four Nigerian states
- The report looked at the FCT, Zamfara, Niger, Borno and Yobe, weighing party structures, security concerns and economic pressures
- Findings point to APC strength in several northern states while flagging one territory where Tinubu and Obi may go head to head
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Legit.ng journalist Ridwan Adeola Yusuf has over 9 years of experience covering politics, elections, public affairs and governance in Nigeria and Africa.
FCT, Abuja - A political assessment has weighed the 2027 presidential election prospects of President Bola Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi across five electoral battlegrounds: the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Zamfara, Niger, Borno and Yobe states.
The report, recently published by The Nation, assessed how party structures, defections and the influence of prominent politicians could affect voter behaviour in each state, with President Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) all positioning for the contest.
Source: Twitter
APC's position in the North
In Zamfara, the assessment found that the APC's greatest risk is not the opposition but divisions within its own ranks. The political camps tied to Senator Abdulaziz Yari Abubakar, Minister of State for Defence Bello Matawalle and Governor Dauda Lawal continue to pull in different directions. Insecurity and economic hardship give opposition parties room to appeal to voters. The NDC counts Senator Kabiru Garba Marafa among its prominent figures in the state, while the ADC is associated with Hon. Bilyaminu Shinkafi. Even so, the report projects Tinubu ahead, conditional on the APC maintaining internal discipline.
Niger State delivered one of the APC's clearest victories in 2023, when Tinubu won 375,183 votes against Atiku's 284,898 and Obi's 80,452, capturing 21 of the state's 25 local government areas. The assessment cautions that past results offer no guarantee, pointing to economic hardship and the opposition's capacity to build grassroots structures as variables that could shift outcomes. Nevertheless, the report projects a 2027 result that largely mirrors 2023 in Niger.
Borno, described as one of the APC's firmest strongholds in the North-East, also favours the ruling party. In 2023, the APC recorded 252,282 votes against the PDP's 190,921. Vice President Kashim Shettima's roots in Borno, where he served two terms as governor, remain a political asset. The NDC's Obi-Rabiu Kwankwaso combination is seen as a potential challenger only if it can convert national recognition into local mobilisation.
Source: Facebook
FCT, Yobe set for three-way showdown
The FCT emerges as the most competitive territory in the assessment. FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, a Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) chieftain who has publicly backed President Tinubu's re-election, is building a cross-party coalition aimed at strengthening the APC's position across the six area councils. The report identifies Tinubu and Obi as the two most likely frontrunners in the territory, suggesting the FCT could become a direct contest between the pair.
Yobe carries a different dynamic entirely. Atiku won the state in 2023 with 198,567 votes, outpacing Tinubu's 151,459. The assessment argues that victory reflected Atiku's personal political following rather than PDP's organisational strength. Now running under the ADC, Atiku may carry that loyalty into 2027. Governor Mai Mala Buni's network and the APC's grassroots machinery remain the ruling party's main advantages. The report gives the APC an edge in the governorship race but regards the presidential contest in Yobe as a straight fight between Tinubu and Atiku.
The projections for the 2027 presidential election across the four states and the FCT are outlined below:
- FCT - It’s Tinubu versus Obi.
- Niger - Tinubu’s APC ahead.
- Zamfara - Tinubu is ahead.
- Borno - Tinubu's APC is ahead.
- Yobe - It’s Tinubu versus Atiku.
Read more on 2027 election
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- 2027 election: VDM warns Nigerians about Goodluck Jonathan and PDP, “he is sponsored by Tinubu”
ChatGPT predicts winner of 2027 election
Earlier, Legit.ng reported that ChatGPT predicted that the APC would likely win Nigeria's 2027 presidential election, using the Four Horsemen framework.
It cited the opposition coalition but said the APC had the edge due to possible low voter turnout and the Tinubu administration's efforts to stabilise the economy.
Source: Legit.ng
