2027 Election: Atiku Projected to Win 9 States, Full List, Details Emerge
- A group called the Political Intelligence Group released a forecast on September 1, 2026, projecting how states may fall in the 2027 presidential race
- The forecast placed President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the strongest position, with Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi projected to trail behind in state count
- The group noted that factors such as fuel subsidy, regional loyalty, and new alliances could still shift the balance before voting day
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Legit.ng journalist Ridwan Adeola Yusuf has over nine years of experience covering politics, elections, and governance in Nigeria and Africa.
Kaduna, Kaduna state - The Political Intelligence Group (PIG) has released a forecast projecting that Atiku Abubakar would win 9 states in the 2027 presidential election.
Legit.ng reports that the projection is based on the political conditions prevailing as of Tuesday, September 1, 2026.
Source: Facebook
The forecast, published by Politico.ng, assessed the current distribution of support among the three major presidential contenders. PIG placed Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in second position with nine states, while Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) was projected to win eight states.
The group was clear that its findings reflect today's political landscape and not a final prediction, noting that the balance of power could shift considerably before votes are cast in 2027.
Tinubu and Atiku's projected strengths
Under the PIG scenario, Tinubu holds a firm grip on the south-west and is credited with wins outside his home region, giving him a clear numerical advantage over his rivals. Atiku, on the other hand, is projected to perform strongly in the north, with Kaduna State and several states in the North-East and North-West listed among his projected wins.
PIG linked Atiku's northern strength to his established political network and history of presidential campaigns, noting his ability to mobilise support across the region. His position on fuel subsidy could also play a role, as he has called for a review of current policy and spoken about reducing the burden of petrol prices on Nigerians. If transport costs and the broader cost of living remain pressing concerns by 2027, that message could appeal to voters seeking relief from rising household expenses.
However, PIG cautioned that the subsidy debate is more complex than a promise of cheaper petrol. Voters are likely to ask where the funding would come from and whether such a policy would be financially sustainable, making government revenue and public spending potential campaign flashpoints.
Religion and ethnicity may also shape Atiku's support in certain areas, though the group said these factors could not be assumed to determine every voter's choice. His overall performance could ultimately depend on whether he can combine northern backing with meaningful support from other parts of the country.
What could change before 2027 election
PIG was direct in saying its forecast should not be read as the final result of the election. The actual vote remains months away, leaving considerable time for the political landscape to shift.
The economy could improve or worsen, new alliances could form, and candidates could gain or lose popularity. Tinubu would likely defend his administration's economic direction, while Atiku's subsidy position could become a significant talking point on the campaign trail.
For now, the projection places Tinubu ahead with 20 states, Atiku second with nine, and Obi third with eight. Whether those numbers hold or a major realignment follows will become clearer as the campaign season unfolds.
Source: Getty Images
The states PIG tipped Atiku to win are highlighted below:
- Sokoto
- Kebbi
- Niger
- Katsina
- Kaduna
- Jigawa
- Gombe
- Adamawa
- Taraba
Source: Original
Read more on Atiku Abubakar
- Cleric releases 2026 prophecies, seeks prayers for Atiku, VeryDarkMan as full message emerges
- 2027 election: Peter Obi predicted to align with Tinubu, "he will never agree to work with the coalition"
- Atiku clarifies encounter with APC’s Yari in Abuja as ex-VP sets sights on sacking Tinubu
Atiku urged to back Obi
Earlier, Legit.ng reported that a senior official of the NDC publicly urged Atiku to withdraw from the 2027 presidential race and throw his weight behind NDC candidate Obi.
Theo Abu Agada, the party's director of new media and strategic communications, made the call in a post on X.
Agada praised Atiku's character and vision while maintaining that the time had come for him to step away from presidential ambitions in the interest of the wider opposition.
Source: Legit.ng
