Osun Governorship Election: The Battleground States, Comfort Zones; How Oyetola and Adeleke Stand across LGAs
On Saturday, July 16, the people of Osun state will elect among 15 governorship candidates the person to govern them from 2022 to 2026.
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Though 15 political parties are participating in the poll, only four have dominated the political discourse ahead of the polls. They are:
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- Adegboyega Oyetola, APC
- Ademola Adeleke, PDP
- Lasun Yussuff, Labour Party
- Akin Ogunbiyi, Accord Party
Also among the four, many pundits believe the race is between Oyetola, the incumbent governor and candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), with Labour Party considered a wildcard.
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Ahead of the polls, Legit.ng analyses the chances of the APC candidate, Governor Adegboyega Oyetola, and the PDP candidate, Ademola Adeleke, in the 30 local government areas in Osun state.
Osun state at a glance
There are three senatorial districts, 30 local government areas, 332 wards and 3,763 polling units in Osun state.
The registered voters for the governorship election stand at 1,955,657. Each senatorial district comprises ten local government areas.
Osun West senatorial district
| Aiyedaade | Aiyedire |
| Ede North | Ede South |
| Ejigbo | Egbedore |
| Irewole | Isokan |
| Iwo | Ola-Oluwa |
Osun Central senatorial district
| Boripe | Boluwaduro |
| Ifedayo | Ifelodun |
| Ila | Irepodun |
| Odo-Otin | Olorunda |
| Orolu | Osogbo |
Osun East senatorial
| Atakumosa East | Atakumosa West |
| Ife Central | Ife East |
| Ife North | Ife South |
| Ilesa East | Ilesa West |
| Obokun | Oriade |
Adegboyega Oyetola’s chances: The comfort zone
Governor Oyetola is from Iragbiji, Boripe LGA under the Osun Central senatorial district. This means he stands a better chance of winning the majority of votes from Boripe and the nine other LGAs in the district.
In the 2019 Senatorial election in Osun, a total of 244,488 votes was recorded in Osun Central; the second highest votes in the state.
Out of the 244,488, APC’s candidate, Ajibola Basiru polled 132,821 votes, more than 50%, to win the election.
Thus, Governor Oyetola han edge in Osun Central which is also under the APC’s senatorial control.
However, Lasun Yussuff, the candidate of the Labour Party, is from Ilobu in Irepodun LGA, another local council under Osun Central. The implication is that the Labour Party candidate may hurt the chances of Oyetola massively defeating the PDP and others in the senatorial district.
Osun West also under APC’s senatorial control
Oyetola also has a good chance in the Osun West which recorded the highest votes, 246,900, in the 2019 senatorial election.
Benedict Olugboyega Alabi, Oyetola’s running mate, is from Ikire in Irewole LGA in Osun West senatorial district.
Osun West is also under the control of the APC as Adelere Adeyemi Oriolowo polled 102,157 votes to defeat the PDP and others in the election.
Iyiola Omisore: Oyetola’s hope in Osun East
In Osun East, Oyetola will also be counting on his new political ally and National Secretary of the APC, Senator Iyiola Omisore, to help him secure the majority votes.
Though Iyiola wields a strong political influence and can deliver the district for the APC, it may be a little difficult as Osun East is currently under the control of the PDP; Francis Adenigba Fadahunsi polled 114,893 votes to defeat the APC senatorial candidate Famurewa Israel Ajibola who got 105,720 votes in 2019.
Senator Ademola Adeleke’s confort zone
Senator Ademola Adeleke is from Ede in the Osun West senatorial district. While this zone should ordinarily serve as Adeleke’s comfort zone, two factors threaten his chances of winning the zone, let alone doing so with a wide margin.
One, the district is currently being represented in the National Assembly by an APC senator. Two, Akin Ogunbiyi, the governorship candidate of the Accord Party (a former PDP member) is also from Osun West.
Adeleke’s chances in Osun East
Kola Adewusi, Senator Adeleke’s running mate, is from Ife East in Osun East senatorial district which is also under the PDP’s control.
That Olagunsoye Oyinlola, a former governor of the state, is from Odo-Otin in Osun Central may also help Senator Adeleke’s fortune.
However, Ife East appears to be a key battleground where both APC and PDP will slug it on fiercely on Saturday.
The internal “enemies” threatening Oyetola and Adeleke’s chances
While Governor Oyetola has the Labour Party candidate to contend with in Osun Central, Senator Adeleke has the Accord Party flag bearer to deal with in Osun West.
The LP governorship candidate left the APC after failing to clinch the party’s guber ticket. So, some of the votes that should have gone to the APC will be cornered by Yussuff.
Akin Ogunbiyi also left the PDP for the Accord Party and will take some of the votes that should go to the lead opposition party.
However, in terms of the control of the senatorial districts, the APC has an edge. While the party is in charge of Osun West and Central, the PDP is in charge of Osun East.
In terms of the power of incumbency which is a huge factor in Nigerian politics, the APC also has an advantage as Oyetola, the party’s candidate, is the incumbent governor.
Nevertheless, Senator Adeleke will be hoping to build on the impressive performance he pulled in 2018 when he defeated Oyetola on the first ballot before eventually losing the rerun by just a small margin.
Source: Legit.ng
