Supercomputer Gives Reasons Why Arsenal Are Favourites To Win Champions League After R16 Draws
- Arsenal will face Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League Round of 16 after the draws were conducted on Friday
- The Gunners are ranked as favourites after topping the Champions League odds at 27.4% according to Opta simulations
- FC Bayern are the second closest challengers at 14.3%, while PSG are pegged at only 4.6%
Despite never lifting the Champions League in their illustrious history, Arsenal are being tipped to finally claim Europe’s most prestigious club trophy this season.
Following the completion of the Round of 16 draw for the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League, analysts and data models are pointing to the Gunners as the team most likely to lift the trophy in Budapest on May 30.
Source: Getty Images
The knockout bracket was revealed on Friday, February 27, mapping Arsenal’s potential path to the final.
Opta’s supercomputer, which ran 10,000 simulations of the competition, has given the North London side a 27.4% chance of winning the tournament, comfortably the highest among the remaining teams.
UCL Round of 16 full draws
Premier League leaders Arsenal, who topped the Champions League table with a perfect record, face German side Bayer Leverkusen, Sky Sports reports.
Source: Getty Images
Full fixtures:
Galatasaray vs Liverpool
Atalanta vs Bayern Munich
Atletico Madrid vs Tottenham
Newcastle vs Barcelona
Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal
Bodo/Glimt vs Sporting
PSG vs Chelsea
Real Madrid vs Man City
Why Arsenal are the UCL favourites
Several factors contribute to Arsenal being the Champions League favourites this season.
First, the Gunners finished top of their group, which means they will play the second leg of each knockout tie at home until the final.
This home advantage is statistically significant in UEFA competitions, giving them a better chance to overturn any first-leg deficit.
Second, Arsenal’s Round of 16 opponent, Bayer Leverkusen, is considered manageable compared to other potential opponents.
According to the supercomputer, this relatively kind draw, combined with only two lower-ranked teams remaining in the competition than Leverkusen, has boosted Arsenal’s title chances.
Finally, Arsenal’s squad depth and consistent performances in both domestic and European competitions were factored into the simulations.
The Gunners’ ability to maintain form across multiple competitions makes Mikel Arteta’s side a statistically likely candidate to progress deep into the tournament.
Others in the race for the UCL
While Arsenal lead the predictions, other European heavyweights are far from out.
Bayern Munich sit second in the supercomputer’s simulations with a 14.3% chance of winning, though a potential quarter-final clash with either Real Madrid or Manchester City could complicate their campaign.
Liverpool are also well-placed, facing Galatasaray in the Round of 16 and advancing in 82.3% of simulations, while winning the tournament in 12.8% of outcomes.
Manchester City are fourth favourites at 10.8%, with defending champions Paris Saint-Germain struggling at just 4.6% due to a tough potential route involving Chelsea and Liverpool.
Spanish giants Barcelona remain in contention at 7.7%, while underdog Bodø/Glimt, who have stunned Europe earlier in the campaign, have only a 0.4% chance of completing a fairytale run.
Despite the competitive bracket, Arsenal’s combination of favourable draw, home advantage, and consistent form has made them the team to beat according to data-driven predictions.
The Gunners now have the chance to finally secure a first-ever Champions League title, a milestone that could define their modern era.
UCL Round of 16 draws confirmed
Earlier, Legit.ng reported that UEFA have confirmed the knockout stage bracket for the 2025/26 Champions League after the draw was held in Switzerland on February 27, 2026.
The draw served up interesting matches, including what has become a seasonal knockout stage affair between Manchester City and Real Madrid.
Source: Legit.ng
