Nigeria’s AFCON 2025 Dreams in Jeopardy as Supercomputer Gives Super Eagles Serious Warning
- Opta supercomputer has given Nigeria only a 7.3% chance to winning the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations
- Nigeria have been drawn against Tunisia, Uganda, and Tanzania, in Group C with a 42.9% chance to top the group
- The Super Eagles are seeking to win the AFCON for the fourth time after successes in 1980, 1994, and 2013
The Super Eagles face a daunting statistical challenge ahead of the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) in Morocco.
Eric Chelle and the rest of the team have arrived in Fez, the city where the three-time African champions will play all their group games.
Source: Getty Images
According to Opta’s supercomputer, Nigeria has just a 7.3% probability of lifting the trophy, placing the Super Eagles behind favourites Morocco, Egypt, Senegal, and Algeria.
This prediction comes despite Nigeria finishing as runners-up in the 2023 edition, where Jose Peseiro’s side lost 2-1 to hosts Ivory Coast in the final.
The data from Opta underscores that while Nigeria boasts an elite attacking talent, including Victor Osimhen and Ademola Lookman, other factors weigh heavily against them.
The Supercomputer sees the Super Eagles as outsiders, suggesting that Nigeria's path to winning the tournament in Morocco is far from assured.
Nigeria’s roadmap at AFCON 2025
Nigeria’s group-stage assignment has done little to ease worries.
Source: Getty Images
Placed in Group C alongside Tunisia, Uganda, and Tanzania as seen on CAF Online, the Super Eagles have been given a 42.9% chance of finishing at the top.
This is only slightly better than Tunisia’s 40.1%, showing how fine the margins are in determining a favourable knockout route.
Even with their attacking stars, Nigeria must navigate every match carefully.
How can Nigeria get it wrong at AFCON
Defensive instability is a major factor that could cost the Super Eagles greatly when the AFCON kicks off on December 21.
Captain William Troost-Ekong, the 2023 Player of the Tournament, has retired from international football, while key defenders Ola Aina and Benjamin Fredrick are sidelined with injuries.
This leaves the Nigerian backline vulnerable and adds pressure on the defence set to be marshalled by Calvin Bassey and Semi Ajayi.
The combination of injuries and retirements has contributed to the Super Eagles being ranked fifth in pre-tournament simulations.
While Nigeria historically performs strongly at AFCON, the Opta model suggests that Morocco 2025 will test the Super Eagles' depth and resilience more than ever before.
NFF tasks Chelle to win AFCON
While the odds may not be in Nigeria’s favour, the Nigeria Football Federation (NFF) is thinking otherwise after setting the target of winning the AFCON for head coach Eric Chelle.
The Malian coach has named a strong 28-man squad for the competition, with 10 of the players making their debut at the continental showpiece.
After failing to qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the NFF believes winning the AFCON will be a good way to compensate Nigerians.
Chelle receives support before AFCON
Meanwhile, Nigerian football expert Toritseju Williams, in a chat with Legit.ng, has backed Chelle to lead the Super Eagles to a successful outing at AFCON 2025 in Morocco.
"Eric Chelle has shown he is capable of getting decent results since taking over the Super Eagles job in January, as seen in the World Cup qualifiers.
"Going into the AFCON, Nigeria is clearly one of the favourites due to our history in the competition, but nobody should pressure Chelle to win it because we do not have the best team yet in Africa."
Eric Chelle receives warning before AFCON
In another development, Legit.ng reported that former Nigeria international Mohammed Gambo believes the Super Eagles’ chances of winning the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) depend largely on head coach Eric Chelle.
Chelle guided Nigeria to their first trophy since 2013 after winning the 2025 Unity Cup, defeating Jamaica 5-4 on penalties.
Source: Legit.ng
