2023 Election: Tinubu or Atiku? Exclusive Permutations That Will Determine APC, PDP’s Chances Emerge

2023 Election: Tinubu or Atiku? Exclusive Permutations That Will Determine APC, PDP’s Chances Emerge

  • The chances of Bola Tinubu of the APC and his counterpart in the PDP, Atiku Abubakar, in the 2023 presidential election, have been dissected by Professor Gbemisola Adeoti
  • Adeoti, who is a professor of literature in English from Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Ile-Ife, is of the view that if Nigerians are not looking in the direction of the APC, then it will be in the way of PDP
  • However, Adeoti rules out the chances of Peter Obi, the Labour Party presidential candidate in the 2023 election, citing a number of reasons

The 2023 presidential election has been said to be between Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

Gbemisola Adeoti, a Professor of Literature in English from Obafemi Awolowo University, analysed the chances of the candidate while speaking with Legit.ng, ruled out the hope of Peter Obi, the Labour Party presidential candidate.

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Bola Tinubu/Atiku Abubakar/Adeoti Gbemisola/2023 Election/Peter Obi
Professor Adeoti analyses the chances of Tinubu, Atiku in the 2023 election Photo Credit: Atiku Abubakar, Gbemisola Adeoti
Source: Twitter

Adeoti's analysis centres on the unfolding events in the Nigerian political space and the character of Nigerian electorates.

He said:

First of all, if you talk about structure, political parties are the structure of mobilization. So it is easier to mobilize where a party is in control in a state, or has some senators or have some house of representative members who will assist in spreading down to the grassroots, to the electorates.
Don't forget that majority of Nigerians are not city dwellers, they live in rural areas, and they have to be reached in a manner that is different from the people in the city, or the educated ones who go about with the Android and so on and so forth.
So, to look at what is on the ground to assess the chances of the parties. One, for APC, the incumbency is there, which is a strong factor in Nigerian politics.

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Secondly, at present, the APC have 21 governors, which means they are solidly present in 21 states and they have over 60 Senators.
Now, if the party is not doing well, inflation, insecurity and all other things, people are generally angry, or they may want to look for alternatives.

The university don maintained that the PDP is next to the APC in terms of structure and finance.

He said:

So, looking in the other direction, you can then assess the chances of PDP. In terms of structure, the next party that has it is PDP. Whether you like it or not, PDP is the next party to APC, so if people don't go the way of the APC, it is more in favour of the PDP. They have 14 governors. There's no other party other than APGA, which has one governor, and they have about 40 or so members in the Senate.

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Therefore, they have that kind of structure, they also have the resources to mobilize.

Role of money in the 2023 election

Speaking about the role of money in the 2023 poll, the professor clarifies that he does not mean sharing naira notes to the electorates but other logistics which the APC and the leading opposition, PDP, can provide

When I say resources, I'm not talking about just distributing money to people at the polling booths, no. You need money to print posters, you need money to hire transport to reach the people at the grassroots but more importantly is the fact that you need money during the election. You will need party agents in all the wards to ensure that your party has been fair to.
So, I don't know any party that wants to rival the two parties. If it doesn’t go in the direction of the APC, it will go in the direction of the PDP.

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Peter Obi's euphoria will mean nothing in the 2023 election

The university lecturer is of the view that the Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, will have little impact in the 2023 presidential election.

He adds that Peter Obi is not the representation of the ideal alternative that Nigerians are looking for, citing his days as governor of Anambra state.

I'm not enticed at all by the Labour Party euphoria and it is very simple. If you look at the candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi. He started out with PDP. He then moved to APGA, from APGA, he was with President Goodluck Jonathan as a special adviser. From there he became the vice presidential candidate of the PDP.
It is shortly before the primary of the PDP that he decamped to the Labour party with a waiting ticket.
So, for me, he does not represent that kind of ideal alternative that we are looking forward to or that Nigerians need at the moment.

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Because he is not detached from those people that we are complaining about. When he was governor of Anambra State, I learned, from the media, that the doctors were on strike for 13 months. I don't know how workers-friendly a candidate like that can be. Even the academic staff union of Anambra State University which later became a Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu University also went on strike for some months.
So, I don't know what I will find appealing in that kind of situation, but that is not my problem, everybody is free to aspire. The problem here is that Labor Party, from the media, is presenting senators in only about 30 constituencies of the federation while we have 109 seats. So, how popular is that kind of party to win the presidency? There are some states where the party does not have governorship candidates.

Source: Legit.ng

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