Betting Odds Favour Four Cardinals as Leading Contenders for Next Pope, Names Mentioned
- The Vatican has opened its historic conclave to elect the next pope, with four frontrunners—Pietro Parolin, Luis Antonio Tagle, Matteo Zuppi, and Pierbattista Pizzaballa—emerging as favourites
- This pivotal decision will shape the future direction of the Catholic Church, determining whether it continues down a reformist path or shifts toward more traditional leadership
- As cardinals gather in seclusion to begin the voting process, the world watches closely, awaiting the selection of the Church’s next spiritual leader
On May 7, 2025, the Vatican witnessed the commencement of the conclave to elect the next pope, an event that will shape the future of the Catholic Church.
As 135 eligible cardinals gathered under strict seclusion in the Sistine Chapel, four candidates stood out as frontrunners—Pietro Parolin, Luis Antonio Tagle, Matteo Zuppi, and Pierbattista Pizzaballa, Newsweek reported.
Source: Getty Images
Why the next pope matters
The election of a new pope will define the Church’s direction at a critical juncture. This marks the first conclave of the post-Francis era, making the decision especially significant.
The outcome will determine whether the Church continues its reformist trajectory or shifts toward a more traditional leadership style.
The implications extend beyond theology, influencing Catholicism’s impact on global regions, including Africa, Asia, and Latin America, where the faith is growing rapidly.
From doctrinal approaches to geopolitical influence, the next pope’s leadership will shape the Church's future.
Pope Fancis' successor: The leading candidates
According to Polymarket, as of 6 May, the top contenders in the papal election are:
- Pietro Parolin – 26% probability, over $1.1 million wagered
- Luis Antonio Tagle – 20% probability, $1.26 million in bets
- Matteo Zuppi – 11% probability, $837,000 in trading volume
- Pierbattista Pizzaballa – 9% probability, $861,000 wagered
These four candidates are the only ones with odds exceeding 10%, positioning them as frontrunners.
Other notable figures, such as Péter Erdő, Peter Turkson, and Jean-Marc Aveline, remain in the single-digit range, reflecting their lower chances of selection.
How the conclave elects the pope
The papal conclave is steeped in tradition and secrecy, with cardinals locked away from the outside world. The process follows strict rules:
- The word "conclave" comes from Latin "cumclave," meaning “with a key,” symbolising the locked doors
- Voting is conducted via secret ballots, and a two-thirds majority is required for election
- On the first day, only one ballot is cast. From day two onward, up to four ballots occur daily—two in the morning and two in the afternoon
- Ballots are burned after each vote; black smoke signifies no selection, while white smoke announces the election of a new pope
- The elected cardinal must accept the position before selecting a papal name
- The world is notified with the famous proclamation: "Habemus Papam!" ("We have a pope!")
- The new pontiff then delivers the Urbi et Orbi blessing from St. Peter’s Basilica
Most modern conclaves last between one and five days, depending on how quickly cardinals reach a consensus.
The previous election in 2013, which selected Pope Francis, concluded on the second day.
Source: Getty Images
What happens next in the papal election
Voting is set to begin on May 7, following the Mass and oaths. If no candidate secures the two-thirds majority, the process will continue with two ballots daily until a decision is made.
Crowds gathered in St. Peter’s Square will keep their eyes on the chimney signals, awaiting confirmation of the 267th pope.
With leading candidates in the running and speculation mounting, the world could see a new pontiff announced before the week's end.
Two cardinals set to elect new pope
Legit.ng earlier reported that two Roman Catholic cardinals, set to vote in the upcoming papal conclave, recently shared insights with ABC News about the church’s challenges and the election process for the next pontiff.
Canadian Cardinal Michael Czerny, appointed by Pope Francis in 2019, emphasised the unity among clergymen as they prepare to elect a new pope.
He clarified that their discussions are not political negotiations but rather spiritual reflections.
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Source: Legit.ng
