- Champions League is regarded as one of the toughest competitions in the world
- Manchester City have been given a 24% chance of winning the competition ahead of Bayern Munich who are on 17%
- The likes of Lazio and FC Porto were analysed as the least likely to win the competition this term
With this season’s Champions League group stages concluded, there are a number of big teams still in the competition and with a solid chance of clinching the trophy.
It is still too early to call the most probable winner of this season’s edition of the Champions League but stats experts at FiveThirtyEight.com attempted to crunch down the numbers on which teams stand the best chance at being crowned kings of Europe.
Last season’s winners Bayern Munich still remain the team to beat this season after finishing top of their group and maintaining their unbeaten record, but data analysts claim they are second in the list of the most likely sides to win it this season.
Bayern stand a 17% chance of retaining the Champions League this season, second to the surprise favourites Manchester City.
According to data analysis, Manchester City are the most likely to be crowned Europe’s elite as they stand a 24% chance.
Given their talent and budget, City have been rather underwhelming in the Champions League this season but their performances are far better than what they are currently enduring domestically.
Pep Guardiola’s men finished top of Group C with 16 points after five wins and one draw in their six matches, closely followed by FC Porto who finished the group in second place.
The fact that City won their group means they are likely to get a favourable draw in the last 16.
The logic behind placing City as favourites could be argued in the fact that their manager Guardiola has won it twice with Barcelona and City and their questionable domestic form could indicate focus is primarily on Europe.
2019 winners Liverpool were given a 7% chance of winning the competition this season, probably due to the fact that Jurgen Klopp is facing a defensive crisis.
Incredibly, Barcelona were given a 10% chance of winning the competition, ahead of their rivals Real Madrid (6%) who barely made it out of the group stage this term.
The full list is as follows:
16. Lazio: under 1%
15. FC Porto: under 1%
14. Borussia Monchengladbach: under 1%
13. Sevilla: 1%
12. Atalanta: 1%
11. RB Leipzig: 3%
10. Juventus: 3%
9. Atletico Madrid: 5%
8. Real Madrid: 6%
7. Borussia Dortmund: 6%
6. PSG: 7%
5. Chelsea: 7%
4. Liverpool: 7%
3. Barcelona: 10%
2. Bayern Munich: 17%
1. Manchester City: 24%
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