Tinubu vs Atiku, Obi: States APC, ADC and NDC May Win in 2027 Forecasted
- A political intelligence group has projected President Bola Tinubu to lead the 2027 presidential race with 20 states under his column
- Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Labour Party's Peter Obi are projected to win nine and eight states respectively
- The Political Intelligence Group warned that alliances, defections and economic conditions could significantly alter the outcome before election day
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A political forecast has placed President Bola Tinubu in the strongest position ahead of the 2027 presidential election, projecting him to win 20 states against former Vice President Atiku Abubakar's nine and Labour Party candidate Peter Obi's eight.
The projection came from the Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng, which based its analysis on the political conditions currently prevailing in Nigeria. The group noted that its scenario assumed the election took place in September under present circumstances, with the All Progressives Congress (APC) coming out on top.
Source: Twitter
Tinubu projected to lead with 20 states
Tinubu, running on the APC platform, is projected to sweep all six South-West states, including Lagos, which has long been the foundation of his political career. The forecast also places Kano State in his column, a result that would give the president a critical foothold in the North, given Kano's status as one of the country's largest electoral territories.
PIG attributed Tinubu's projected lead to his perceived progress in stabilising the economy and his administration's broader policy direction. The group, however, cautioned that his ability to communicate those achievements to ordinary Nigerians could become a defining campaign issue.
Atiku projected to win nine states
Atiku Abubakar, the African Democratic Congress' (ADC) expected standard-bearer, is forecast to win nine states, drawing largely from parts of Northern Nigeria, including Kaduna and select states in the North-East and North-West.
His extensive political network and experience from multiple presidential campaigns are expected to help him mobilise support across the region. His position on fuel subsidy reform, particularly any proposals to ease petrol costs and reduce the burden on households, could resonate with voters still feeling the pressure of high transportation costs and rising living expenses. Whether his northern base proves sufficient without broader national backing remains a key question in the forecast.
Peter Obi projected to win eight states
Peter Obi, the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate, is projected to win eight states, with the Federal Capital Territory and Edo State among the areas expected to swing in his favour. The forecast reflects the momentum he built during the 2023 election, when he recorded strong performances in multiple parts of the country.
Obi's campaign is expected to continue its focus on accountability, economic management and efficient public spending. His principal challenge, PIG noted, is breaking beyond the regions where he already commands loyalty and expanding into new political territory.
Alliances could reshape the race
PIG was clear that no aspect of its projection should be treated as a settled outcome. The group said coalition arrangements, running mate selections, candidate defections and shifts in public sentiment over inflation, security, unemployment and the cost of living could all rearrange the electoral map before Nigerians head to the polls in 2027. Regional, religious and ethnic considerations are also expected to factor into voters' calculations as the election draws closer.
Ekiti NDC chairman denies stepping down
Legit.ng earlier reported that Ekiti NDC chairman Musa Arogundade broke his silence on Monday to address reports that he had stepped down from his position.
Arogundade said he was properly appointed by party leaders and stakeholders in May 2026 and remains at the helm of the state chapter.
The NDC chairman also weighed in on Peter Obi's 2027 presidential ambitions and the party's preparations ahead of the general elections.
Source: Legit.ng
