Osun 2026: 3 Things That Could Make Adeleke Lose Saturday Election
- Governor Adeleke is running on the Accord Party after leaving the PDP and failing to join the APC, a move that has cost him major political backing
- Critics have raised questions about alleged favouritism towards Adeleke's hometown of Ede and a governance record they describe as weak on health, education and infrastructure
- Analysts say the Osun race is a tight, high-stakes contest complicated by election-related violence, vote-buying allegations and a competitive multi-candidate field
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Governor Ademola Adeleke of Osun State faces mounting pressure ahead of the governorship election, with analysts identifying three distinct vulnerabilities that could hand victory to his rivals in what is shaping up to be one of Nigeria's most closely watched state contests.
Adeleke, who is contesting on the Accord Party's platform, is facing the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), the party that currently controls the federal.
Source: Facebook
Weakened party platform and lost alliances
Adeleke's departure from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) during its national crisis has left him competing under the Accord Party, a smaller platform with fewer grassroots structures than the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) at the federal level. Several National Assembly members and former PDP stakeholders have since defected to the APC.
Former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola, once a key political figure in the state, has publicly backed APC candidate Bola Oyebamiji, known as AMBO, citing what he described as a lack of inclusiveness in Adeleke's administration. The shift in alliances raises questions about whether Adeleke can mobilise enough voters without the machinery that previously underpinned his support.
Governance record under scrutiny
Opposition voices have kept up steady criticism of Adeleke's time in office, focusing on allegations that infrastructure projects were poorly executed and that development spending was concentrated disproportionately in his hometown of Ede. This has drawn comparisons to cronyism, with critics coining the term "Ede-nisation" to describe what they see as an unequal distribution of government resources.
Questions have also been raised about how the state managed sizeable Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) inflows, with opponents arguing there is little to show statewide despite the volume of funds received. While Adeleke's camp has pointed to salary and pension payments, minimum-wage implementation, and infrastructure progress as achievements, APC critics contend that education and healthcare have been largely neglected, a narrative that could influence undecided voters.
Violence, federal dynamics, and a split opposition field
The campaign period has been overshadowed by mutual accusations of thuggery, vote-buying, and intimidation, with reports of dozens of violent incidents linked to the election. The APC, as the party controlling the federal government, is seen as carrying stronger institutional momentum into the vote, particularly in its traditional strongholds across the state.
Complicating matters further is the presence of ADC candidate Najeem Salam, whose campaign is linked to former Governor Rauf Aregbesola's political influence. Analysts warn that Salam could draw away protest votes or anti-APC sentiment that might otherwise consolidate around Adeleke. Last-minute political realignments and the risk of suppressed voter turnout in areas experiencing tension add further uncertainty to the outcome.
Some polls and prediction markets have shown Adeleke remaining competitive or holding a lead, and the final result will depend heavily on turnout, ground-level organisation, and how voters respond on election day.
Peter Obi criticises Fadahunsi's outburst
Legit.ng earlier reported that Peter Obi spoke out against Senator Francis Fadahunsi over comments he described as inflammatory and threat-laden before the Osun State election
Obi called on Fadahunsi to retract his statements and apologise to the people of Osun State
The NDC presidential candidate urged security agencies to monitor inflammatory rhetoric and protect voters before, during, and after the polls.
Source: Legit.ng
