US-Iran-Israel War: Expert Says Conflict Might Affect Nigeria, Outlines Reasons
- Escalating tensions in the Middle East are sending concerns through Nigeria's economy, with fuel prices alleged to skyrocket
- Economist Paul Alaje warns that the conflict could push petrol prices to higher levels, spelling trouble for households and businesses alike
- Nigerians who listened to the economist speaking during a recent interview had different things to say in the comments section
Concerns intensified over the likelihood of another spike in fuel costs in Nigeria as unrest in the Middle East deepened.
Economic analyst Paul Alaje cautioned that the retail price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) could rise to roughly N1,000 per litre if the tension involving the United States, Israel and Iran dragged on without resolution.
Source: Twitter
Expert Paul Alaje speaks on impact of war
He linked the projection to movements in the international oil market, noting that Nigeria remained highly exposed to global price swings.
Alaje, who held the position of Chief Economist at SPM Professionals, discussed the issue during an interview on Politics Today on Channels Television, as reported by @channelstv.
He outlined how any sustained climb in crude oil benchmarks would have filtered directly into domestic fuel prices, affecting petrol, diesel and aviation fuel alike.
He noted that a recent upward adjustment had already added roughly nine percent to petrol costs across the country.
He warned that if hostilities persisted beyond April, motorists could have faced pump prices surpassing the N1,000 threshold.
Such an increase, he claimed, would not have been confined to transport alone.
Higher diesel prices would have raised logistics expenses, while more costly aviation fuel would have pushed up airfares.
The cumulative effect, he argued, would weigh heavily on low-income earners, middle-income families and wealthier Nigerians alike.
Source: Twitter
Alaje further explained that manufacturers would probably have encountered rising operational expenses as energy inputs became more expensive.
Those added costs would likely have been passed on to consumers over time, reinforcing inflationary pressures in the short, medium and longer term.
Although he acknowledged that stronger crude prices might have boosted Nigeria’s export revenues, he stressed that any financial windfall could have been undermined by domestic price instability.
In his words:
“While crude oil goes up, we all need to check the impact on our economy. The first thing you see is high inflation, because as crude oil goes up, the cost of PMS, diesel, and Jet-A1 will also follow. As that is going on, about nine per cent has already attracted more cost for PMS in Nigeria, and by the end of April, we project that if the war is not properly managed, it might get to ₦1,000 plus for PMS in Nigeria.
"If PMS is ₦1,000, you can imagine what diesel will be; you can imagine what flight tickets will be. It will affect the poor, the middle class and, of course, the rich. We project that before the end of the month, if the war continues as mentioned by President Trump, we might see oil prices go to what we saw during President Jonathan’s regime, more money for Nigeria, because the world cannot suddenly change all equipment that relies on by-products of crude overnight.”
Reactions as economist speaks about war
Nigerians had different things to say in the comments section.
Ntufam Jr said:
"How will war be going on and the crude oil prices are going up. How's that possible."
See the post below:
Lady in Dubai sees 'missile' close to building
Meanwhile, Legit.ng previously reported that a lady living in Dubai cried out bitterly on social media after having a terrifying experience at her residence.
In a now-viral video on TikTok, the lady claimed that the missiles allegedly fired by Iran came very close to her building.
Source: Legit.ng
