3 Key Reasons Rabiu Kwankwaso May Regret Joining ADC
- Kwankwaso traded the near-total control he enjoyed in the NNPP for a crowded ADC coalition where multiple heavyweights now share power
- The former governor walked into a fierce contest for the 2027 presidential ticket against Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, risking political sidelining
- His defection confused loyal Kwankwasiyya followers in Kano, with some key NNPP figures refusing to follow him to his new party
Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso’s recent defection to the African Democratic Congress (ADC) has been hailed by the party as a "game changer" according to reports by the Guardian. However, beneath the fanfare of this political realignment, significant risks threaten to undermine the very influence the former Kano State governor seeks.
Source: Facebook
While the coalition aims to unseat the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2027, an analysis of the political terrain suggests three critical reasons why Kwankwaso may come to regret this move.
Loss of Political Dominance and Structural Control
In the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Kwankwaso was not just a member; he was the undisputed national leader and the architect of the party’s structure, Vangaurd reported. He enjoyed near total control over the party’s machinery, candidate selection, and strategic direction.
The NNPP was, for all intents and purposes, an extension of the Kwankwasiyya movement. This allowed him to dictate terms and mobilize his base without significant internal opposition.
However, by joining the ADC, Kwankwaso has stepped into a crowded room of political heavyweights. The ADC is positioning itself as a coalition platform, already housing the ambitions of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi, and even former Minister Rotimi Amaechi.
In this new setting, Kwankwaso becomes one of several leaders rather than the sole authority. He will have to contend with a National Working Committee led by figures like Senator David Mark, the party’s National Chairman, and Rauf Aregbesola, the National Secretary. This diffusion of power severely weakens his ability to dictate strategy or handpick candidates, forcing him into a democratic process he did not have to endure in his previous platform.
Source: Facebook
Internal Power Struggles with Established Heavyweights
The ADC’s selling point is a consensus-driven approach to selecting its presidential candidate, a method the party insists is the least costly and most unifying.
However, in Nigerian politics, consensus among multiple kingmakers is often a breeding ground for intense internal strife. The trio of Kwankwaso, Atiku, and Obi collectively secured over 15 million votes in 2023, and the arithmetic of merging those votes is attractive on paper. Yet, the question of who leads the ticket remains a ticking time bomb.
Local analysts warn that overlapping political bases, particularly between Kwankwaso and Atiku in the North, could lead to friction.
Kwankwaso has reportedly shown a body language favoring a Southern presidency for the sake of "national balance," which aligns with Peter Obi’s ambitions.
However, Atiku Abubakar has refused to step aside, arguing that doing so would be undemocratic . This creates a zero-sum game. If the party settles on a consensus candidate that is not Kwankwaso, he risks being politically sidelined.
Conversely, if he fights for the ticket and loses, he may be forced into a difficult compromise or a humiliating exit, diminishing the political leverage he worked decades to build.
Risk of Losing Core Northern Support Base
Kwankwaso’s political currency is his grassroots movement, the Kwankwasiyya, easily identifiable by their trademark red caps. This movement holds significant sway in Kano State and the wider Northern region. However, political loyalty in the North is often tied to specific party structures as much as personality. His defection from the NNPP to the ADC risks alienating loyalists who may be unwilling to abandon the party platform they helped build .
A chieftain of the NNPP confirmed that not all key figures in the former party are willing to follow Kwankwaso to his new platform, suggesting a potential split in his ranks.
Furthermore, Bayero University Don, Dr. Sai’idu Ahmad Dukawa, noted that while Kwankwaso’s move to the ADC could defeat the APC in Kano, it relies on the assumption that his entire bloc moves with him.
In reality, frequent defections can lead to voter apathy or confusion among the grassroots who view consistent party affiliation as a sign of political stability. If the Kwankwasiyya movement fragments, Kwankwaso’s legendary grassroots influence could weaken just when he needs it most for the 2027 elections.
While the ADC offers Kwankwaso a national platform to challenge the APC, the trade offs are severe. He has exchanged the comfort of a personal political fiefdom for the turbulent waters of a multi factional coalition.
Between the struggle for the soul of the ADC, the fierce battle for its presidential ticket, and the risk of alienating his loyal red cap followers in Kano, Senator Kwankwaso may find that his new home offers more competition than comfort.
Labour Party mocks Obi’s defection speech
Legit.ng earlier reported that the LP leadership said it took notice of the defection of Obi and a few of his supporters to the ADC.
Obi's former party mocked the presidential hopeful's speech at the occasion, describing it as “lacklustre.”
In its statement, the LP 'wondered what new Obi intends to sell to Nigerians.
Source: Legit.ng
