CBN Predicts Fuel Prices in Nigeria in 2026, Higher Than NNPC's New Rate
- The CBN has projected how petrol prices are likely to remain in 2026 and has provided reasons
- The projection is based on global crude oil prices, foreign exchange rates, and Nigeria’s daily oil production levels
- The recent reduction in petrol prices triggered by the Dangote Refinery could come under threat
Legit.ng journalist Dave Ibemere has over a decade of business journalism experience with in-depth knowledge of the Nigerian economy, stocks, and general market trends.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has said petrol prices in Nigeria might be around N950 per litre in 2026.
The bank disclosed this in its 2026 Nigerian economic forecast, where it assessed key factors influencing fuel prices, including global crude oil prices.
Source: Getty Images
The CBN released the projection at a time when Nigerians are experiencing some relief in petrol prices following price cuts by the Dangote Refinery at the end of 2025, a move that forced filling stations to lower their pump prices.
Before the Dangote Refinery slashed gantry prices to N699 in December, petrol sold for about N900 per litre or more.
The refinery then set a N739 pump price through its partner, MRS Oil. When MRS outlets began selling at this rate in mid-December, competing filling stations, including NNPC, lowered their prices to below N800 to retain customers.
Reasons behind CBN’s petrol price projection
The CBN said its projection of about N950 per litre is based on the assumption that crude oil prices will reach $60 per barrel by the end of 2025, before declining to around $55 in 2026.
Punch reports that the bank also projected a stabilisation in the foreign exchange market, with the naira expected to trade at about N1,400 to the dollar in 2026.
According to the bank, improved stability in the foreign exchange market, increased foreign investment inflows, and stronger economic activity are expected to help reduce pressure on petrol prices. However, the projection indicates that petrol prices will still remain higher than current levels.
Source: Getty Images
Impact of domestic crude oil production
The forecast also shows that Nigeria is expected to continue producing about 1.5 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2026. This output level, according to the CBN, is crucial for stabilising domestic petrol prices.
The CBN emphasised that continued local refining plays a key role in reducing dependence on imported petrol, which often leads to price spikes.
The bank warned that a return to full-scale fuel imports could result in a sharp rise in petrol prices across Nigeria.
The CBN further noted that global energy prices are expected to decline by about 6.99% in 2026, driven by lower crude oil prices.
NNPCL cuts fuel prices
In a related development, Legit.ng reported that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has reduced petrol prices at some of its filling stations.
Reports indicate that fuel buyers confirmed the price reduction at selected outlets in parts of the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.
This followed recent price cuts by the Dangote Refinery, which have continued to force marketers to lower pump prices.
Proofreading by James Ojo, copy editor at Legit.ng.
Source: Legit.ng
