Experts Warn Petrol, Diesel Prices May Rise in Nigeria Due to US-Iran War
- Energy experts warn that petrol and diesel prices in Nigeria could rise if crude oil exceeds $90 per barrel
- Rising tensions in the Middle East have increased volatility in the global oil market
- Analysts say Nigeria remains exposed because local refineries still import significant volumes of crude
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Oluwatobi Odeyinka is a business editor at Legit.ng, covering energy, the money market, technology and macroeconomic trends in Nigeria.
Energy analysts and downstream operators have cautioned that petrol and diesel prices in Nigeria could rise again if global crude oil prices climb above $90 per barrel amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, PUNCH reported.
Source: UGC
The warning follows renewed volatility in the international oil market triggered by hostilities in the Middle East, with experts expressing concern that Nigeria’s domestic fuel pricing remains exposed to global shocks despite ongoing investments in local refining.
Recent checks across major cities show petrol retailing between N824 and N880 per litre, depending on location and logistics costs.
The current range comes after the Dangote Petroleum Refinery reduced its Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) gantry price by N25 per litre in February 2026, lowering the ex-depot rate from N799 to N774 per litre.
Global oil prices rise
Over the weekend, global oil prices rose sharply amid reports that some oil majors halted tanker movements near the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy corridor linking the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean.
The waterway handles over 20 per cent of global oil shipments, and any disruption is widely seen as capable of triggering supply shortages and price spikes.
As of 10 pm on Sunday, Brent crude traded at $72.87 per barrel, West Texas Intermediate at $67.02, while Nigeria’s Bonny Light stood at $78.62 per barrel. Analysts warned that sustained escalation could push prices closer to or beyond the $90 benchmark.
Experts raise concerns
Olatide Jeremiah, Chief Executive Officer of Petroleumprice.ng, said Nigeria’s dependency on imported crude and refined products leaves consumers exposed to international market shocks.
He explained that while the Petroleum Industry Act prioritises domestic refineries in crude allocation, more than 60 per cent of the Dangote refinery’s feedstock is reportedly sourced from abroad, while about 40 per cent of refined products consumed locally are still imported.
Jeremiah added that although higher oil prices may boost government revenue, Nigerians could face higher pump prices if global benchmarks surge.
Market dynamics and subsidy removal
Dayo Ayoade, an energy law expert at the University of Lagos, said Nigeria can no longer shield consumers from global price volatility following the removal of fuel subsidies.
He explained that oil prices are largely driven by global demand and supply dynamics, and geopolitical tensions often introduce risk premiums into the market. According to him, any sustained rise in crude prices will directly impact domestic fuel prices under the current market-based framework.
However, Professor Emeritus Wumi Iledare, a petroleum economist, urged caution against panic. He noted that the global oil market is now more diversified and transparent than during past geopolitical crises, such as the 1973 oil embargo or the Gulf War era.
Iledare said that while tensions may temporarily elevate prices, fundamentals such as supply diversification and improved market information could limit long-term shocks.
Source: Getty Images
Marketers monitoring developments
Chinedu Ukadike, National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, said marketers are closely watching developments and will adjust based on prevailing market conditions.
He assured consumers that marketers would continue to ensure product availability once the supply remains steady.
The crisis escalated after coordinated military strikes on Iran by the United States and Israel, raising fears of broader regional conflict.
Reports indicate that key members of the OPEC+ alliance have announced a production adjustment of 206,000 barrels per day effective April, though analysts say the increase may not be sufficient to offset potential disruptions if tensions persist around the Strait of Hormuz.
Experts say the situation underscores Nigeria’s continued exposure to global oil shocks and highlights the need to boost crude production, curb oil theft, and ensure consistent domestic supply to local refineries to enhance energy security.
Depot owners release new petrol prices
Legit.ng earlier reported that private depot operators recently announced updated petrol prices in a move aimed at closing the widening gap between their rates and those of the Dangote Refinery.
The price adjustments follow renewed competition in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector after the refinery resumed sales of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) to marketers.
Earlier reports showed that the Dangote refinery restarted petrol sales at N774 per litre after a prolonged pause that had pushed PMS prices higher across the country.
Source: Legit.ng
