New Study Warns Billions Could Face Extreme Heat by 2050 as Global Warming Intensifies
- Almost half of the world’s population could be exposed to extreme heat by 2050 if global warming reaches 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels
- Researchers at the University of Oxford warned that the most severe impacts would begin as soon as the 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Agreement is crossed
- The findings, published in Nature Sustainability, revealed that billions of people across both hot and cold regions face unprecedented risks to health, infrastructure, and energy demand
A new study from the University of Oxford reported that almost half of the world’s population – around 3.79 billion people – would be living with extreme heat by 2050 if global warming reached 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels. Climate scientists described this scenario as increasingly likely.
The researchers explained that most of the impacts would be felt earlier, as the world passed the 1.5°C target set by the Paris Agreement.
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In 2010, 23% of the global population lived with extreme heat, and this figure was projected to rise to 41% in the coming decades.
Countries most at risk from heat
The findings, published in Nature Sustainability, highlighted that the Central African Republic, Nigeria, South Sudan, Laos, and Brazil were expected to experience the sharpest increases in dangerously hot temperatures. India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and the Philippines were predicted to have the largest affected populations.
The study noted that countries with colder climates would see a much larger relative increase in uncomfortably hot days. Compared with the 2006–2016 period, when global temperatures rose by 1°C above pre-industrial levels, warming to 2°C would lead to a doubling in Austria and Canada, a 150% rise in the UK, Sweden, and Finland, a 200% increase in Norway, and a 230% rise in Ireland.
Researchers stressed that infrastructure in these nations was largely designed for cold conditions, meaning even moderate warming could have disproportionately severe impacts compared with regions that had greater resources and adaptive capacity to manage heat.
Rising demand for cooling systems
Lead author Dr Jesus Lizana, Associate Professor in Engineering Science, stated:
“Our study shows most of the changes in cooling and heating demand occur before reaching the 1.5ºC threshold, which will require significant adaptation measures to be implemented early on. For example, many homes may need air conditioning to be installed in the next five years, but temperatures will continue to rise long after that if we hit 2.0 of global warming.”
He added that achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 would require decarbonising the building sector while developing more effective and resilient adaptation strategies.
Dr Radhika Khosla, Associate Professor at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment and leader of the Oxford Martin Future of Cooling Programme, remarked:
“Our findings should be a wake-up call. Overshooting 1.5°C of warming will have an unprecedented impact on everything from education and health to migration and farming. Net zero sustainable development remains the only established path to reversing this trend for ever hotter days. It is imperative politicians regain the initiative towards it."
The study further reported that the projected rise in extreme heat would drive up energy demand for cooling systems, leading to higher emissions. At the same time, demand for heating in colder countries such as Canada and Switzerland was expected to decrease.
The research also introduced an open-source dataset of global heating and cooling demand. This resource included 30 global maps at approximately 60km resolution, capturing climate intensity in ‘cooling degree days’ and ‘heating degree days’ worldwide.
The dataset was designed to provide a foundation for integrating accessible climate data into sustainability planning and development policy.
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Climate change intensifies floods in Africa
Legit.ng earlier reported that researchers reported that human-caused climate change had worsened the recent torrential rains and floods which devastated parts of southern Africa, killing more than 100 people and displacing over 300,000.
The floods struck South Africa, Mozambique and Zimbabwe, leaving widespread destruction of homes, roads and bridges, according to ABC news.
Source: Legit.ng
