Atiku, Tinubu or Peter Obi? Report Predicts Winner in Kaduna, Katsina, Jigawa
- A new political assessment has examined APC, ADC and NDC prospects across three key northern states ahead of the 2027 presidential election
- The report identified incumbency, state government control and grassroots structures as the main factors shaping APC's current advantage in all three states
- Kaduna emerged as the most complex battleground, given its 2023 voting pattern and the political realignments that have followed since then
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Legit.ng journalist Ridwan Adeola Yusuf has over 9 years of experience covering politics, elections, public affairs and governance in Nigeria and Africa.
Kaduna, Kaduna State - A political assessment has identified President Bola Tinubu's All Progressives Congress (APC) as having a structural advantage in Katsina, Jigawa and Kaduna states ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The report, recently published by The Nation, examined party structures, defections, alliances and historical voting patterns in all three states to gauge how the contest could unfold, with Tinubu, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) all positioning for the contest.
Source: Twitter
APC's position in Katsina, Jigawa
In Katsina, the APC benefits from Governor Dikko Umaru Radda's political influence and an established network across the state's 34 local government areas. The assessment noted, however, that voter dissatisfaction with economic conditions, rising living costs and insecurity could chip away at the party's support. The ADC has begun mobilising in the state, including activity in the Daura Senatorial Zone, though internal divisions remain a concern. Former Katsina State Secretary to the Government, Mustapha Inuwa, reportedly left the ADC in August and called on his supporters to return to the APC.
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) also remains relevant in Katsina, having won the state in the 2023 presidential election despite losing the governorship race, suggesting that control of state government does not automatically translate into presidential votes.
In Jigawa, Governor Umar Namadi, who has been endorsed for a second term, is expected to anchor the APC's campaign around programmes in agriculture, infrastructure and social welfare. The ADC is countering with messaging on fuel prices, workers' welfare and civil service conditions, but its success will depend on resolving internal disagreements and building structures across the state's 27 local government areas and 287 wards.
Kaduna's more complicated contest
Kaduna presents the most difficult calculation for all parties. In 2023, Atiku, then the PDP candidate, won the state with 554,360 votes, ahead of Tinubu's 399,293 and Obi's 294,494 on the Labour Party platform. Kwankwaso of the NNPP polled 92,969 votes.
Since then, the political landscape has shifted considerably. The APC now controls the state under Governor Uba Sani, and Senator Sunday Marshall Katung's defection from the PDP, alongside the return of several associates of former Governor Nasir El-Rufai, including former Chief of Staff Bashir Saidu, former commissioner Jafaru Sani and former senator Abdu Kwari, has redrawn political alliances across Kaduna.
For the ADC, Atiku won 14 local government areas in 2023, including Zaria, Kaduna South, Kaduna North, Lere and Igabi, giving him a foundation to build on. Obi's Labour Party won seven, mostly in Southern Kaduna. However, the Obidient movement has lost much of its visibility, and the NDC did not field a governorship candidate in Kaduna on INEC's recently published final list, raising questions about the party's organisational reach in the state.
Source: Facebook
Overall, the assessment placed the APC ahead in all three states, while identifying the ADC as the most significant challenger if Atiku can consolidate his northern networks.
The projections for the 2027 presidential election in Kaduna, Katsina and Jigawa states are outlined below:
- Kaduna - APC ahead, ADC not a pushover.
- Katsina - Fluid, but APC can win the presidential election if it is united.
- Jigawa - Fluid, but APC can win the presidential election if it is united.
Read more on 2027 election
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- 2027 election: VDM warns Nigerians about Goodluck Jonathan and PDP, “he is sponsored by Tinubu”
ChatGPT predicts winner of 2027 election
Earlier, Legit.ng reported that ChatGPT predicted that the APC would likely win Nigeria's 2027 presidential election, using the Four Horsemen framework.
It cited the opposition coalition but said the APC had the edge due to possible low voter turnout and the Tinubu administration's efforts to stabilise the economy.
Source: Legit.ng
