Tinubu or Peter Obi? Atiku Ruled Out as Stears' Poll Predicts Winner of Nigeria's 2023 Presidential Election

Tinubu or Peter Obi? Atiku Ruled Out as Stears' Poll Predicts Winner of Nigeria's 2023 Presidential Election

  • PDP presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar has been ruled out as Stears released its prediction for the 2023 presidential election
  • The pan-African data company, in a poll made public on Tuesday, February 7, predicted that Peter Obi would be victorious if there is a high turnout of voters
  • However, APC's Bola Ahmed Tinubu is predicted to win the election if there is a low voter turnout, like in 2019

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A predictive poll by Stears, a pan-African data company, says Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), will win the 2023 presidential election if there is a high turnout of voters.

However, the poll predicts Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the All Progressives Congress (APC)'s presidential candidate, will win if there is a low turnout of voters.

Tinubu and Peter Obi/Stears Poll/2023 Presidential Election
Stears' poll predicts APC's Bola Tinubu and Labour Party's Peter Obi are likely winners of the 2023 presidential election. Photo credits: KOLA SULAIMON/AFP, PIUS UTOMI EKPEI/AFP
Source: Getty Images

Stears 2023 Electoral Poll methodology

Stears, in a report released on Tuesday, February 7, said its poll has three basic unique features, which include:

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  • Statistically reliable state-level electoral analysis and predictions; this predicts the performance of the top candidates at the state level.
  • Multiple predictions are based on various turnout scenarios; this predicts the likely winners when the turnout is low and high.
  • Nigeria’s first electoral prediction model; this feature predicts who the respondents who refuse to declare their preferred candidates will vote for

Meanwhile, the sample size of the Stears 2023 Electoral Poll covers 6,220 respondents across Nigeria's 36 states.

The poll also includes booster samples from strategic states to enable more precise national and state-level predictions.

It included 22 questions (on demographics, voting history, top-of-mind-issues, religion, ethnicity, confidence in INEC etc.), with an average time of 15 minutes per interview, and was conducted in five major languages: Hausa, Yoruba, Igbo, Pidgin English and English.

Basic poll without considering silent respondents shows Peter Obi will win

In a basic poll, which does not factor in the silent respondents, Obi emerged as the winner in the Stears 2023 Electoral Poll.

The basic poll results show Peter Obi holding a healthy lead (27%) over his more established rivals. Tinubu has 15% while Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has 12%.

The silent respondents make up 37%.

Stears' poll/2023 Presidential Election/Peter Obi/Tinubu/Atiku
Stears' (basic) poll predicts Labour Party's Peter Obi to win the 2023 presidential election. Source: www.stears.co
Source: UGC

Peter Obi wins again when the choices of silent voters are predicted

Even though 43% of the undeclared or silent voters are predicted to favour Tinubu, Peter Obi still emerges as the winner under this predictive system.

The LP presidential candidate is predicted to have 39.8%, while Tinubu is predicted to have 30.6%.

Atiku is predicted to come third with 17.9%. Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) is predicted to have only 2%.

"Even after including silent voters, Peter Obi holds a comfortable lead. In essence, the Stears electoral poll and prediction model affirms that Peter Obi is by far the most popular and desired candidate for the 2023 Presidential Elections," the report stated.

Stears Poll/2023 Presidential Election/Peter Obi/Tinubu
Peter Obi is predicted to emerge as Nigeria's next president by Stears' poll. Source: www.stears.co
Source: UGC

High versus low voter turnout: Who will win?

If there is a high turnout of voters, Peter Obi is predicted to win, scoring 41% in the poll. Tinubu is predicted to come second with 31%, Atiku third with 20% and Kwankwaso fourth with 3%.

Peter Obi/stears poll/high voter turnout/2023 presidential election
Stears model predicts a Peter Obi victory in a high turnout scenario. Source: www.stears.co
Source: UGC

However, if the voter turnout is low, Tinubu is the predicted winner. He is predicted to lead with 39% while Obi follows with 32%. Atiku and Kwankwaso have 22% and 3% respectively.

"The Stears electoral poll and prediction model indicates that Peter Obi is Nigeria’s most popular presidential candidate and should win the presidential ticket as long as Nigerians follow through on their stated intent to vote.
"But, if voter turnout looks similar to 2019, then Tinubu will win the election," the report concluded.

Tinubu/Stears Poll/2023 Presidential Election
Stears model predicts a comfortable Tinubu victory if voter turnout is low. Source: Stears.co
Source: UGC

2023 presidency: Fitch predicts Tinubu's victory

Meanwhile, a recent report on the 2023 presidential election in Nigeria has predicted APC's Tinubu will win at the February polls.

The Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research in its report released on February 1, also highlighted the possibility of a rerun from the presidential polls.

With the APC's Tinubu, Peter Obi of the Labour Party and Atiku Abubakar of the Labour Party recognised as the top candidates in the race, Fitch said the institute anticipates domestic insecurity following the outcome of the elections.

Source: Legit.ng

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