Is Nigeria at Risk of Earthquakes? New Fact Emerges in 2026
- Nigeria has often been seen as a zone immune from major earthquakes, but new research challenges that belief
- Studies now show that the country faces a real risk of seismic events, with forecasts pointing to magnitudes as high as 7.1 by 2028
- Experts warn that urgent government action is needed to prepare for these possible disasters and protect lives
New findings from IOP Science Research suggest that the nation may not be entirely safe from earthquakes.
Past tremors recorded in different regions have raised concerns among experts, leading to fresh warnings about possible future seismic events.
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Research findings on Earthquake probability
According to the study:
“The several past seismic occurrences in Nigeria has recently led to warnings from research agencies and the forecast of large earthquake from researchers in Nigeria. Nevertheless, the major forecast from researchers has appeared to be open ended. To this end, this paper aimed at the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Nigeria and the limit to probable future earthquake magnitudes in Nigeria. The Gutenberg-Richter recurrence law was majorly employed for the purpose of this research.”
The research highlights the following possible earthquake magnitudes in Nigeria:
- Magnitude 6.0 in the year 2020
- Magnitude 6.5 between 2021 and 2022
- Magnitude 7.0 between 2025 and 2026
- Magnitude 7.1 in 2028 with a 36.79% probability
The probability of experiencing a 7.1 magnitude earthquake between 2019 and 2028 ranges from 9% to 36.79%.
Implications for Nigeria’s safety
These findings suggest that Nigeria could face significant seismic risks in the coming years. While earthquakes of such magnitudes are not guaranteed, the probabilities are high enough to warrant serious attention. The study recommends that the Nigerian government take proactive steps to prepare for potential earthquakes, including:
- Strengthening infrastructure to withstand seismic shocks
- Improving emergency response systems across the country
- Raising public awareness about earthquake preparedness
The evidence from IOP Science Research makes it clear that Nigeria can experience earthquakes. With forecasts pointing to possible magnitudes as high as 7.1 by 2028, the country must act swiftly to mitigate risks. Earthquake preparedness is no longer optional, it is a necessity for safeguarding lives and infrastructure.
Source: Getty Images
NiMet lists states to experience heavy rainfall
Legit.ng earlier reported that the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has forecast thunderstorms and moderate rainfall across many parts of the country on Thursday, June 4. It further warned residents to prepare for possible disruptions.
The weather agency, which shared the forecast on its official X handle, stated that several northern states would begin the day with sunny conditions before thunderstorms develop later. According to NiMet, states such as Taraba, Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara, and Kaduna may experience light thunderstorms in the morning. By afternoon and evening, thunderstorms accompanied by moderate rainfall are expected in Borno, Jigawa, Adamawa, Taraba, Gombe, Bauchi, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara, and Kano states.
The agency said the storms could be accompanied by lightning and strong winds, which may affect outdoor activities and travel. In the North Central region, cloudy skies and brief sunshine are expected during the early hours, with Niger and Benue among the states likely to experience morning thunderstorms.
Source: Legit.ng
