Millions of Nigerian Graduates, Few Jobs: The Skills Gap No One Talks About
Editor’s note: In this piece, Lekan Olayiwola, a policy analyst, examines why millions of Nigerian graduates struggle to find jobs. He explains how practical training and early skills could help bridge the gap.
Nigeria’s unemployment rate is officially falling, yet millions of young Nigerians feel more economically stuck than ever. Revised NBS data put headline unemployment at 4.3% in Q2 2024, but this masks deeper labour-market stress. The International Labour Organisation estimates that youth unemployment (ages 15–24) is at about 6.5%, excluding discouraged workers, informality, and precarious jobs.
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Nearly 93% of Nigeria’s workforce operates in the informal economy, often without stable income, protection, or mobility, meaning many are working but not productively employed. Against this backdrop, practical training from secondary curriculum reform to TVET and work-linked learning has become central, with the real test being alignment with labour-market demand.
A growing labour supply meets a narrow job funnel
Nigeria produces a large and growing pool of labour-market entrants each year. Conservative estimates suggest that between 600,000 and over one million graduates emerge annually from universities and polytechnics alone, with several hundred thousand more completing colleges of education and technical institutions. In total, well over one million young Nigerians enter the labour market each year.
Yet the economy does not generate formal employment at a comparable scale. NBS data consistently show that graduates, particularly those with post-secondary education, experience higher unemployment rates than the national average, a counter-intuitive outcome that reflects a persistent skills mismatch rather than a lack of effort or ambition.
Employers across manufacturing, construction, ICT, energy and services repeatedly report difficulty filling technical roles, even as graduate unemployment remains high. The issue is not simply credentials, but job-ready competence: practical experience, applied problem-solving, digital fluency, and workplace adaptability.
Layoffs and labour market fragility
Labour-market pressure has also been shaped by retrenchments in major organisations over the past five years, reinforcing the vulnerability of traditional employment pathways. Notable examples include the Dangote Refinery, which reportedly laid off approximately 800 workers during operational restructuring; also, Abuja Electricity Distribution Company (AEDC) retrenched roughly 800 staff amid sectoral and financial pressures; several Nigerian-linked technology and e-commerce firms, including Jumia, reduced staff as part of broader global tech sector adjustments.
These developments are not unique to Nigeria. They reflect automation, capital intensity, cost rationalisation, and global market volatility. The implication, however, is that future employment security increasingly depends on adaptability, technical relevance, and transferable skills rather than organisational permanence.
TVET under the Tinubu administration: Scale and early signals
In response to these realities, the Federal Government has placed renewed emphasis on technical and vocational education and training (TVET) as part of a broader human-capital strategy. The current TVET initiative aims to train up to 1.3 million Nigerians through more than 1,600 accredited centres nationwide, covering sectors such as manufacturing, construction, automotive services, agriculture, renewable energy, digital services, and creative industries.
Demand has been strong. Public records indicate that over 1.3 million youths applied, with approximately 960,000 screened, and tens of thousands already enrolled or completed training. Government-reported outcomes suggest that over 60% of graduates are employed or self-employed, an encouraging figure, even if independent longitudinal verification remains essential.
Importantly, TVET’s relative success lies not in scale alone, but in direct labour-market linkage. Where training connects clearly to demand, such as electrical installation, welding, solar maintenance, and digital support services, employment outcomes improve measurably.
Secondary education reform
What has often been absent from employment debates, however, is the foundation stage of skills formation. This is where Nigeria’s new secondary school curriculum, scheduled for implementation from the 2025/2026 academic session, becomes highly consequential.
The revised curriculum embeds 21st-century skills directly into Junior and Senior Secondary School education, including Digital Literacy and Basic Coding at JSS level, Programming, AI fundamentals, Data awareness and Cybersecurity at SSS level, Mandatory selection of at least one practical or trade-linked subject, such as Solar installation, Agriculture, GSM repair, Fashion design, or ICT hardware maintenance
This represents a structural shift from education as knowledge transmission to education as competency formation. Students are exposed to applied skills years before entering tertiary institutions or the labour market, reducing the steep learning curve that employers often complain about.
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Why early skills matter
International evidence consistently shows that early exposure to applied skills improves employability, adaptability, and confidence. By the end of senior secondary school, students equipped with digital fluency, project-based learning experience, and basic entrepreneurial thinking are better positioned to transition into TVET programmes without starting from zero
They enter apprenticeships or internships earlier, combine tertiary education with income-generating skills or pursue self-employment more credibly. In this sense, the new curriculum acts as a pipeline feeder for TVET and technical employment, rather than treating vocational training as a remedial option after unemployment sets in.
Persistent education policy blindspots
Despite these positive shifts, several blind spots remain. First, implementation capacity. Curriculum reform requires teacher retraining, infrastructure, and instructional materials. Without adequate resourcing, particularly in public and rural schools, skills-based subjects risk becoming theoretical in practice. Second, coordination gaps persist between ministries of education, labour, youth development and industry regulators. Fragmentation reduces efficiency and weakens accountability.
Third, employer signalling remains weak. Many firms articulate skill needs informally, but few participate systematically in curriculum design, certification standards or apprenticeship pipelines. Finally, labour-market data systems remain underdeveloped. Nigeria lacks a robust, real-time skills observatory that tracks demand, wage signals and employment outcomes across sectors.
Lessons from comparable economies
Several Global South countries offer instructive parallels. India has aligned TVET expansion with industrial corridors and digital services growth, contributing to gradual reductions in youth unemployment. Bangladesh has linked vocational training directly to export-oriented manufacturing, particularly garments, creating large-scale absorption pathways.
South Africa has strengthened industry-linked technical colleges tied to national infrastructure and energy priorities. The lesson is not replication, but alignment. Skills training works best when embedded within a broader economic strategy.
What a coherent strategy looks like
A data-driven employment strategy for Nigeria would rest on four pillars: Early skills exposure through secondary education reform; Market-linked TVET with verifiable employment outcomes; Industry co-ownership of training pipelines; and Labour-market intelligence to guide continuous adjustment. None of these alone is sufficient. Together, they form a system.
Reducing unemployment in Nigeria is not primarily about producing more certificates, nor about blaming any single institution. It is about building a skills ecosystem that mirrors the economy we have and the one we are trying to build. The combination of secondary-school curriculum reform, expanded TVET, and a growing recognition of practical skills represents a meaningful shift in direction. The early data are encouraging. The task now is consistency, coordination and credibility.
Nigeria’s youth problem is not a lack of talent; it is a lack of alignment between education, training, and opportunity. If Nigeria sustains this trajectory, aligning education with labour demand and training with opportunity, its youthful population can become a foundation for productivity, resilience and inclusive growth, not a source of pressure. The evidence suggests the tools are emerging. The question is whether they will be fully and faithfully used.
Lekan Olayiwola is a public-facing peace & conflict researcher/policy analyst focused on leadership, ethics, governance, and political legitimacy in fragile states.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Legit.ng.
Proofreading by James Ojo, copy editor at Legit.ng.
Source: Legit.ng
