Fuel Crisis Looms as Dangote Refinery Threatens Full Export Over Import Licence Dispute
- Dangote Petroleum Refinery weighed exporting refined products amid rising domestic fuel demand and supply concerns
- Dispute over petrol import licences created tension between Dangote Group and Nigerian regulatory authorities
- Experts warned that full exports could lead to fuel shortages and renewed price hikes in Nigeria's market
Pascal Oparada is a journalist with Legit.ng, covering technology, energy, stocks, investment, and the economy for over a decade.
Nigeria’s fragile fuel supply outlook has come under renewed pressure as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery considers exporting all its refined products, including petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel.
The move, if implemented, could tighten domestic supply and revive fears of fuel scarcity across the country.
Source: UGC
Sources within the 650,000-barrels-per-day facility in Lekki, Lagos, say the option is being weighed in response to the continued issuance of petrol import licences, despite official claims to the contrary.
The development comes at a time when demand for Dangote products is surging across Africa due to disruptions in global supply chains.
According to a report by The Punch, a senior official at the refinery indicated that exporting output may become necessary if local market conditions remain unfavourable.
According to the source, the persistence of import licences undermines the viability of domestic refining.
Import licence dispute deepens tension
At the heart of the standoff is a disagreement between the Dangote Group and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
While refinery sources insist that fresh import licences have been granted to marketers in 2026, the regulator maintains that no new approvals have been issued this year.
The NMDPRA argues that fuel imports currently arriving in Nigeria are tied to licences granted in late 2025, noting that petroleum importation involves long lead times. Officials also stress that their data is published monthly and reflects transparency in supply dynamics.
Despite these assurances, refinery insiders claim that at least six companies recently received approval to import petrol.
This disagreement has fueled uncertainty in the downstream sector, raising concerns about policy consistency and market direction.
Africa turns to Dangote amid global supply strain
Compounding the situation is the growing international demand for Dangote’s fuel. Several African countries, including South Africa, are actively seeking supply agreements with the refinery as geopolitical tensions disrupt traditional supply routes from the Middle East.
Industry reports indicate that availability, rather than price, has become the primary concern for buyers.
Governments across the continent are exploring alternative sourcing strategies to shield their economies from volatility in global oil markets.
This surge in demand places the Dangote refinery in a strategic position, but also creates a dilemma between meeting domestic needs and capitalising on export opportunities.
Supply gap and market realities
Recent figures highlight the delicate balance in Nigeria’s fuel supply chain. In February 2026, the Dangote refinery produced an average of 36 million litres per day, while national consumption stood at approximately 56 million litres daily.
Regulators, however, argue that the apparent gap was offset by stockpiled volumes carried over from late 2025, when export delays in Europe led to unsold inventories.
According to the NMDPRA, there has been no actual shortage, and both local refiners and marketers are competing for market share.
The agency adds that domestic refineries now account for over 90 per cent of Nigeria’s fuel supply, marking a significant shift from years of heavy import dependence.
Push for domestic refining gains momentum
The NMDPRA has reiterated its commitment to reducing fuel imports and strengthening local refining capacity.
Its leadership describes Nigeria’s energy sector as transitioning from a long period of import reliance to a new phase driven by domestic production.
Officials warn that certain interests still favour large-scale importation, despite the progress made with the Dangote refinery.
They argue that sustaining local refining gains will require consistent policy support and reduced reliance on foreign supply.
Industry stakeholders, including petroleum marketers, have also expressed support for prioritising domestic refining.
They note that the Dangote refinery has helped cushion Nigerians from extreme price spikes amid global tensions.
Risk of scarcity and rising prices
Experts caution that a full export of Dangote’s output could have immediate consequences for Nigeria. Reduced local supply may lead to fuel shortages, long queues at filling stations, and renewed upward pressure on pump prices.
Such an outcome would reverse recent stability in the downstream sector and place additional strain on households and businesses already grappling with high energy costs.
Source: Getty Images
With global supply disruptions intensifying and domestic policy disagreements unresolved, the path forward remains uncertain.
The decisions taken in the coming weeks could determine whether Nigeria consolidates its refining gains or slips back into another cycle of fuel scarcity.
Marketers import fuel amid N1,200/litre price
Legit.ng earlier reported that as Nigerians struggle with rising fuel costs, petroleum marketers began importing petrol and diesel in what appears to be an attempt to stabilise supply and challenge the growing dominance of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in the downstream market.
Shipping data showed that vessels carrying about 129,000 metric tonnes of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) and Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) are scheduled to arrive at Lagos ports between March 14 and March 17, 2026.
The development came at a time when petrol prices have surged nationwide after the Dangote refinery raised its gantry price to N1,175 per litre, pushing retail pump prices in many locations above N1,200 per litre.
Proofreading by Funmilayo Aremu, copy editor at Legit.ng.
Source: Legit.ng
