Rewane Predicts Weaker Naira, Rising Debt, New Opportunities in Nigeria in 2026
- Bismarck Rewane has projected a cautious but hopeful outlook for Nigeria’s economy in 2026, with moderate global growth
- He warned of key risks such as oil price volatility, foreign exchange pressure, security challenges, and rising public debt
- The economic analyst also highlighted investment opportunities in sectors such as fintech, energy, technology, oil and gas, and AI
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Legit.ng journalist Victor Enengedi has over a decade's experience covering energy, MSMEs, technology, banking and the economy.
The Managing Director of Financial Derivatives Company, Mr Bismarck Rewane, has shared a cautious yet hopeful outlook for Nigeria’s economy in 2026.
He said the year would bring moderate global growth, pressure on the naira, rising public debt, and new investment opportunities in important sectors.
Source: UGC
Speaking on Thursday, January 22, 2026, in Lagos at the Nigerian-British Chamber of Commerce (NBCC) January 2026 Economic Outlook event, Rewane explained that the global economy is expected to grow steadily in 2026.
This growth will be supported by higher spending by consumers and increased investment in Artificial Intelligence (AI). He also said many central banks may slowly reduce interest rates as inflation continues to ease.
Within Nigeria, Rewane noted that although the exchange rate stayed fairly stable in 2025, the difference between the official and parallel market rates has widened to about ₦71.
This, he said, shows renewed pressure on the foreign exchange market. He projected that the naira could weaken further to around ₦1,640 to the U.S. dollar by the end of 2026.
Risks, Debt Levels, and Economic Performance
Rewane explained that Nigeria’s economy is operating close to its full capacity, meaning it is producing as much as possible without causing inflation or inefficiency.
However, he identified several risks that could affect growth in 2026. These include unstable oil prices, lower oil production, foreign exchange shocks, low reserves, security challenges, reform fatigue, and increasing fiscal pressure.
He also projected that Nigeria’s public debt would continue to rise gradually. According to him, public debt is expected to reach about 40.6 per cent of GDP in 2026 and increase slowly to around 43.5 per cent by 2030. He stressed that while debt is rising, it is not expected to grow at an uncontrollable pace.
Rewane added that real GDP is expected to grow by 4.1 per cent in 2026, showing that the economy is still recovering. Monetary policy is likely to remain cautious, with a possible interest rate cut of about 100 basis points, but not an aggressive one.
Investment Opportunities and Market Expectations
Rewane highlighted several sectors that are likely to offer strong opportunities in 2026. These include financial technology, power, renewable energy, technology, oil and gas, and AI.
He projected that manufacturing earnings could reach ₦38.25 trillion, supported by lower inflation, better consumer spending, increased refining capacity from the Dangote refinery, regional trade, and improved electricity support.
However, challenges such as poor power supply, weak infrastructure, high costs, and limited access to finance may still hold the sector back.
He also said Nigeria’s capital market outlook for 2026 looks positive, with an average of five new company listings and no expected delistings. Market capitalisation is projected to rise to ₦262 trillion, while the combined earnings of the top 10 companies could increase to ₦8.8 trillion. Daily market turnover is expected to average ₦135 billion.
Lastly, Rewane noted the key assets to watch in 2026, which include gold, equities, treasury bills, and real estate.
Source: Legit.ng
