‘None of Them Will Step Aside’: Analyst Shares 3 Flaws in ADC Coalition’s 2027 Game Plan

• Political analyst, Dr. Toks Oguntuga, has warned that ADC risks collapse in 2027 without key political backers
• Speaking with Legit.ng, he raised tough questions about the true motives behind the alliance many hoped would reshape Nigeria’s political future
• He also cast doubt on a former candidate’s chances, pointing to shifts in public mood and lost momentum

A political analyst and communications expert, Dr. Toks Oguntuga, has said the emerging coalition of opposition figures poses no substantial threat to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) ahead of the 2027 general election.

Speaking to Legit.ng, Oguntuga based his assessment on three core factors, including the absence of sitting governors, internal disunity, and a weakening support base for opposition hopefuls.

His words:

“Firstly, the coalition conspicuously lacks the presence and endorsement of any sitting governor,” he noted, describing governors as "the equivalent of General Officers Commanding during the military epoch" in the political landscape.

“They are the financial juggernauts and logistical architects of presidential campaigns. Let us be candid: how many of the current governors have thrown their considerable weight behind this coalition? The answer is resoundingly clear; none.”

So then, who will bankroll the coalition’s presidential ambition? Where will the war chest come from?

Coalition driven by selfish ambition - Oguntuga alleges

The political communication expert also questioned the motives and cohesion of the coalition’s leading figures, pointing to longstanding rivalries and personal ambitions.

Secondly, the dramatis personae within this coalition are, quite frankly, riddled with desperation and plagued by an unrelenting thirst for power.

“Many of them are infamous for their inability to accept defeat with dignity or delay gratification for strategic gain. Atiku Abubakar perceives this as his final shot at the presidency. Do you genuinely envision him stepping aside for a Southern candidate? Highly improbable.”

On former minister Rotimi Amaechi, he said,

“He is unlikely to gracefully concede to someone like Peter Obi.”

He added that Obi’s quick exit from the PDP in 2022 “suggests he lacks the temperament for coalition politics.”

"Should he sense impending defeat within the coalition’s internal processes, rest assured he will bolt and chart a solo course."

Oguntuga also doubted the sincerity of Nasir El-Rufai’s involvement, noting his fallout with the APC stemmed from not receiving a ministerial appointment.

“Can he, with a straight face, endorse Peter Obi, whom he once lambasted in no uncertain terms as the coalition’s presidential standard-bearer?” he asked.

I find it difficult to believe that this assembly of political prima donnas will remain united after a bruising primary contest.

Finally, Oguntuga dismissed the idea that Obi could replicate his 2023 performance at the polls.

Thirdly, should Peter Obi somehow clinch the coalition’s presidential ticket, I do not foresee a repeat of his 2023 performance at the ballot box.

“The once-vibrant ‘Obidient’ movement has lost considerable steam; it is a shadow of its former self. Moreover, the Northern electorate remains wary, if not outright distrustful, of his candidacy. Without significant Northern support, a presidential bid in Nigeria is little more than a political fantasy. ”

“Barring some unforeseen political cataclysm or a monumental misstep by President Tinubu and his administration, my forecast remains steadfast: the APC is poised to retain the presidency come 2027.”

ADC warns against fake chairmen, registration

Legit.ng earlier reported that the African Democratic Congress (ADC) disowned a fake list of state chairmen circulating online, stressing it made no new appointments and warning against misinformation.

In a statement by spokesperson Bolaji Abdullahi, the party urged members to verify information only via official platforms and ignore any updates not endorsed by ADC.

The ADC also cautioned Nigerians against fraudulent registration websites, confirming that no online payment is authorised and advising vigilance as its website recovers from repeated crashes.

Proofreading by James Ojo, copy editor at Legit.ng.

Source: Legit.ng