CBN Releases Outlook for 2026, Projects Economic Growth, Inflation, Others
- The CBN has projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 4.49% in 2026 and has provided key anchors
- The apex bank believes that structural reforms, oil production, and expanded domestic refining capacity will play a big role
- Inflation is expected to ease to 12.94%, while foreign reserves are projected to rise to US$51.04 billion, maintaining naira stability
Legit.ng journalist Dave Ibemere has over a decade of experience in business journalism, with in-depth knowledge of the Nigerian economy, stocks, and general market trends.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected a more stable and resilient economy in 2026, citing the impact of reforms implemented since 2023 and improved macroeconomic coordination, despite lingering global uncertainties.
The projection is contained in the 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, themed “Consolidating Macroeconomic Stability amid Global Uncertainty”, which reviews economic developments in 2025, outlines projections for 2026, and highlights policy priorities to mitigate emerging risks.
Source: Getty Images
Apex Bank's outlook for 2026 is “cautiously optimistic,” with expectations that the economy will stabilise further as growth picks up modestly, inflation continues to moderate, and the foreign exchange market remains steady.
Also expectation are high for improved activity in the non-oil sector, although structural constraints persist.
The CBN further noted that after a prolonged period of monetary tightening to curb inflation, it eased its policy stance in September 2025 to support domestic growth and investment.
CBN said:
The easing was driven by continuing disinflation, sustained exchange rate stability, and improved liquidity conditions.
The bank also reported that external buffers strengthened due to increased remittance inflows, steady oil receipts, and rising non-oil exports, all supporting naira stability.
Substantial progress was also made in transitioning toward a full-fledged inflation-targeting regime, backed by improved forecasting tools, modelling frameworks, and enhanced policy communication.
Key highlights from the CBN 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook:
- Economic growth: Nigeria’s GDP is projected to grow by 4.49% in 2026, up from 3.89% in 2025, supported by ongoing structural reforms, increased oil production, and expanded domestic refining capacity.
- Inflation: Headline inflation is expected to moderate to 12.94% in 2026, aided by lower food and petrol prices and improved coordination of fiscal and monetary policies.
- Foreign exchange stability: External reserves are projected to rise to US$51.04 billion, bolstered by steady remittance inflows, higher export receipts, and expanded local refining capacity.
- Debt-to-GDP ratio: Public debt is expected to remain sustainable at 34.68% of GDP, reflecting prudent fiscal management and ongoing reforms.
- Oil production: Crude oil output is projected at 1.71 million barrels per day, supported by investment in exploration and enhanced domestic refining capacity.
Key policy anchors:
- FX market reforms: Designed to enhance price discovery, market stability, and foreign exchange flows.
- Improved fiscal conditions: Expected to boost government revenue, crude production, and economic productivity.
- Nigeria Tax Act, 2025: Aims to expand the revenue base and stimulate SMEs as engines of growth.
- Banking sector recapitalisation: Strengthens financial system resilience and enhances banks’ capacity for credit intermediation
Source: UGC
Deputy Governor, Economic Policy, Muhammad Sani Abdullahi, reaffirmed the Bank’s commitment to achieving price stability while fostering sustainable development.
He urged stakeholders, including policymakers, business leaders, and civil society, to leverage insights from the report to chart a path toward a more stable and competitive economy, Guardian reports.
The CBN noted that achieving these projections would require sustained reform commitment, prudent fiscal management, and careful navigation of domestic and global risks.
CBN announces new rule for dollar card use at ATMs, POS
Earlier, Legit.ng reported that the CBN has directed banks and non-bank acquirers to reconfigure all automated teller machines (ATMs), point-of-sale (PoS) terminals and virtual payment platforms to seamlessly accept foreign-issued payment cards.
The directive was captured in a circular signed by Rita Sike, the Director of the Financial Policy and Regulation Department.
Card acceptance devices must support contactless payments for low-value transactions.
Source: Legit.ng
