From Oil to Ideas: Adedeji Urges Nigeria to Rethink Exports for Lasting Prosperity
- Nigeria must diversify beyond crude oil for sustainable economic growth and shared prosperity
- Dr. Zacch Adedeji highlights the need for productive complexity in Nigeria's export economy
- Comparisons with Vietnam show the importance of adapting to global value chains and upgrading industrial capabilities
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Nigeria must urgently move beyond crude oil and raw commodity exports if it hopes to achieve sustainable growth and shared prosperity, according to the Executive Chairman of the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), Dr Zacch Adedeji.
Adedeji made the call during his maiden Distinguished Personality Lecture at Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Ile-Ife, where he argued that Nigeria’s core economic problem is not a shortage of resources but a deficit of productive complexity.
Source: UGC
Speaking on the theme “From Potential to Prosperity: Export-Led Economy,” he stressed that modern economic success is increasingly determined by the sophistication of what countries produce and export, rather than the sheer volume of output.
“Economic growth today is no longer about producing more of the same things,” Adedeji said.
“It is about producing different and more complex things that embed knowledge, skills, and innovation.”
A narrow export base, decades on
Adedeji noted that Nigeria’s export structure has remained largely unchanged for decades, dominated by crude oil and a narrow set of primary commodities.
While the oil and gas sector is technologically advanced and deeply integrated into global markets, he said its gains have failed to translate into broader economic development.
“The contradiction is stark,” he observed. “We have a globally connected oil sector, yet the rest of the economy remains shallow, informal, and low in productivity.”
Citing data from the Harvard Atlas of Economic Complexity, Adedeji revealed that Nigeria added just six new products to its export basket between 2008 and 2023, an unusually low figure for an economy of its size and potential.
This limited diversification, he warned, has left the country highly exposed to global price shocks while constraining industrial learning, job creation, and income growth.
Why complexity matters for growth
According to Adedeji, countries that rely on a narrow range of low-complexity exports tend to experience slower growth and higher economic volatility.
Nigeria, he said, currently has very few diversification opportunities that build on its existing productive knowledge.
He attributed this challenge to decades of underinvestment in manufacturing, technical skills, and industrial capabilities.
“Nigeria today is positioned to take advantage of very few diversification opportunities,” he said, warning that without deliberate action, the country risks remaining stuck in a low-productivity trap.
Lessons from Asia, warnings from elsewhere
To illustrate alternative development paths, Adedeji pointed to countries such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Indonesia, which deliberately integrated into global value chains.
Vietnam, in particular, transformed its economy by assembling electronics and manufactured goods, importing components while exporting higher-value finished products.
“In doing so, Vietnam absorbed foreign technology, managerial practices, and industrial discipline, gradually building domestic capacity,” he explained.
By contrast, countries that depended excessively on natural resources or failed to continually upgrade their industrial base, including South Africa and Brazil, saw early advantages erode over time.
“Productive capabilities are not permanent,” Adedeji cautioned. “Without constant upgrading, economies lose ground.”
A call for a new economic reset
While acknowledging ongoing reforms under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Adedeji stressed that fiscal adjustment alone would not deliver long-term prosperity.
The real goal, he said, must be the deliberate building of national productive capabilities.
Source: Twitter
Nigeria, he concluded, must reposition itself as a producer of value-added goods rather than a supplier of raw materials, or risk remaining “rich in resources, but poor in outcomes” in an increasingly knowledge-driven global economy.
Nigeria’s external reserves rise by $66m to hit N46.11bn
Legit.ng earlier reported that Nigeria’s external reserves recorded a modest but significant increase at the end of January, rising by $66 million to $46.11 billion, data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) show.
The 1.6 per cent month-on-month gain from $45.45 billion in December 2025 offers renewed support for the country’s foreign exchange buffers, following months of pressure driven by global volatility and domestic FX demand.
The improvement comes at a time when the naira is enjoying its strongest run in nearly two years, reinforcing market confidence that recent reforms and tighter policies are beginning to yield results.
Source: Legit.ng
