Expert Predicts New Naira to Dollar Exchange Rate in 2026
- The Nigerian currency is expected to remain under pressure against the US dollar in 2026
- Afreximbank and CardinalStone reports attribute the outlook to FX reforms, inflation trends, and oil price movements.
- Analysts say stronger FX liquidity and policy measures could support the naira and ease domestic fuel costs.
The naira is projected to trade between N1,350 and N1,450 per US dollar in 2026.
Yemi Kale, Chief Economist at the Africa Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), made the projection while delivering the keynote address at the FirstBank Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026.
Source: Twitter
Kale outlined scenario-based forecasts for the USD/NGN exchange rate, taking into account oil prices, foreign-exchange (FX) inflows, inflation trends, and policy consistency.
Under a baseline scenario, Kale expects the naira to remain under pressure but avoid sharp collapse, trading around N1,313 per dollar by June and approximately N1,340 by December 2026.
The projection assumes moderate improvements in Nigeria’s FX reserves and oil export revenues, stability in Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) policies, a gradual decline in inflation, and the absence of major external shocks such as a sudden oil price collapse or a surge in the US dollar.
Naira exchange rate
Also. CardinalStone Partners’ 2026 economic outlook report, Indicators Align for Sustained Macro Gains, offered a slightly more optimistic view.
The firm predicts that the naira could strengthen to between N1,350 and N1,450 per dollar next year, driven by improved macroeconomic fundamentals, higher FX liquidity, and moderating inflation.
However, the report warned that risks from global oil markets and domestic insecurity could still affect the currency’s stability.
Analysts noted that lower global crude oil prices could reduce Nigeria’s FX earnings, potentially weighing on the naira. Yet, structural reforms in the foreign exchange market and a stronger reserves position are expected to cushion the impact.
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CardinalStone added that a resilient FX outlook could also reduce domestic energy costs, particularly for Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) and Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), which are crucial for transport and industry.
Experts emphasised that while the naira may experience moderate depreciation at times, consistent policy implementation, improved liquidity, and careful monitoring of inflation and FX inflows could support stability.
Both Kale and CardinalStone described the outlook as cautiously optimistic, highlighting the importance of continued reforms and sound macroeconomic management to sustain confidence in the currency.
The forecasts suggest that with careful policy measures and favourable market conditions, the naira could maintain relative stability in 2026, providing some relief to businesses and households facing currency volatility.
Naira appreciates by over N100
Earlier, Legit.ng reported that naira ended 2025 stronger, gaining more than N100 against the US dollar across foreign exchange markets.
The improvement was supported by rising external reserves, continued policy reforms, and improved liquidity conditions in the market.
The local currency rose by N165, or 11.1%, year-on-year to close 2025 at N1,485 per dollar, compared with N1,650 at the end of December 2024.
The CBN also shared its expectations for 2026, with high hopes for a stronger naira.
Proofreading by Funmilayo Aremu, copy editor at Legit.ng.
Source: Legit.ng
