Dangote Refinery Changes Strategy Amid Petrol Production Unit Downtime
- Dangote Refinery shifts to lighter crude to maintain output during RFCC shutdown
- RFCC outages continue to limit production capacity and delay ramp-up efforts
- Fuel imports increase to support gasoline supply amid constrained internal refining capacity
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has altered its operational strategy, switching to lighter crude oil grades to cushion the impact of the prolonged shutdown of its Residual Fluid Catalytic Cracker (RFCC), a critical petrol-producing unit.
The move is aimed at sustaining output and preventing major supply disruptions amid ongoing technical challenges.
Source: Getty Images
This is according to a new report by global commodities intelligence firm Kpler titled “Dangote H1 2026 Outlook: RFCC challenges keep runs capped and ramp-up uneven.”
Shift to lighter crude to stabilise operations
Kpler revealed that since the fourth quarter of 2025, the Lekki-based refinery has increasingly processed lighter crude grades with an API gravity of about 37–39.
This strategic shift has allowed the facility to preserve feedstock availability for key crude distillation unit-linked secondary units, including the Continuous Catalytic Reformer (CCR), isomerisation, and hydrocracking units.
By prioritising lighter crude, Dangote Refinery has been able to keep these units operational, reducing the risk of sharp disruptions to gasoline and middle distillate production, even as the 200,000-barrel-per-day RFCC remains offline.
According to Kpler, the lighter crude slate has played a central role in stabilising refinery operations, although repeated RFCC outages continue to cap overall runs and slow the pace of ramp-up.
Production held back by RFCC bottleneck
Despite the adaptive strategy, the RFCC remains the single biggest bottleneck. The unit has suffered repeated outages since April 2025, limiting refinery throughput and delaying a smooth scale-up.
Kpler estimates that crude runs in January averaged between 280,000 and 300,000 barrels per day and are expected to hover around 300,000 to 320,000 barrels per day into February.
The RFCC restart, initially expected earlier, has now been pushed to February 10, with market sources warning that lingering technical issues could lead to further delays.
A short maintenance shutdown of the crude distillation unit is also expected in early February, adding another layer of operational complexity.
Imports step in to support fuel supply
To sustain gasoline output amid constrained internal conversion capacity, Dangote Refinery has leaned more heavily on imported gasoline blending components.
Kpler estimates that gasoline imports into the refinery surged to around 45,000 barrels per day in January.
According to a report by the Punch even with reduced operating rates, the refinery continued producing gasoline through alternative units such as the CCR and isomerisation units, helping to stabilise supply during the RFCC downtime.
January gasoline production is estimated at 95,000 barrels per day, alongside nearly 120,000 barrels per day of middle distillates.
Outlook remains uneven despite medium-term optimism
Looking ahead, Kpler projects refinery runs could average about 350,000 barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026 and rise to roughly 400,000 barrels per day in the first half of the year, assuming a gradual RFCC ramp-up from the third week of February.
Under this scenario, gasoline output could climb to 120,000 barrels per day in Q1 and about 150,000 barrels per day in H1 2026.
However, the firm cautioned that risks remain skewed to the downside, stressing that full stabilisation is still months away.
Source: UGC
Extended ramp-up periods are common for mega-refineries, with steady operations often taking 24 to 36 months, particularly when critical conversion units face reliability challenges.
As Africa’s largest single-train refinery, Dangote remains central to Nigeria’s push to cut fuel imports and ease foreign exchange pressure.
Yet, analysts agree that patience will be required as the refinery navigates the complex path to full operational stability.
Dangote Refinery begins 24-hour loading operations
Legit.ng earlier reported that The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has expanded its operations to include night-time fuel loading, marking a significant transition to full 24-hour activity at Africa’s largest refining facility.
This development is aimed at sustaining the daily distribution of over 50 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) nationwide, as production and evacuation volumes continue to rise.
Originally built to load products during daytime hours, the refinery has adjusted its logistics framework to accommodate increased output and ensure continuous product movement, Punch reports.
Source: Legit.ng
