IMF Forecasts Nigeria's Economy to Grow Faster in 2026, Sends Strong Warning to Govt
- The IMF has projected Nigeria’s economic growth at 4.4% in 2026
- The forecast represents a slight improvement from the 2025 estimate of 4.2%
- The IMF warned Nigeria against reversing recent economic reforms
Oluwatobi Odeyinka is a business editor at Legit.ng, covering energy, the money market, technology and macroeconomic trends in Nigeria.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Nigeria’s economy will expand by 4.4% in 2026, citing gradual improvements in macroeconomic conditions, even as inflationary pressures remain a concern.
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The projection is contained in the IMF’s January 2026 World Economic Outlook titled “Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces”. The new forecast represents a slight increase from the 4.2% growth estimate for Nigeria in 2025.
According to the IMF, the improved outlook is tied to ongoing economic reforms and stabilisation efforts.
IMF sends note of warning
However, the Fund warned that reform fatigue and policy reversals could undermine recent gains, especially as political pressures increase ahead of the election cycle.
Speaking at the Nigerian Economic Summit Group’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook event in Lagos, the IMF’s Nigeria Country Representative, Dr Christian Ebeke, cautioned against rolling back reforms.
He said reversing recent policy changes would weaken Nigeria’s hard-earned macroeconomic progress.
Ebeke noted that while some progress has been recorded, Nigeria’s reform agenda is still incomplete. He highlighted persistently high inflation as a major constraint on economic policy flexibility.
In its broader regional outlook, the IMF said economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to strengthen to 4.6% in both 2026 and 2027, supported by macroeconomic stabilisation and reform efforts in key economies across the region.
On the global front, the IMF projected steady economic growth, although it noted that momentum in high-technology sectors is expected to moderate, partly offsetting slower activity elsewhere.
The Fund also forecast a gradual easing of global inflation, projecting headline inflation to decline to 3.8% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. It attributed the trend to softening demand and lower energy prices, while noting differences across major economies.
The IMF urged central banks worldwide to maintain price stability through data-driven and transparent monetary policies.
It stressed the importance of central bank independence in managing inflation expectations and sustaining economic growth, particularly in an uncertain global environment.
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IMF predicts 3.1% global growth
Earlier, the IMF lifted its outlook for global growth this year, flagging a milder-than-expected economic hit from President Donald Trump's tariff policies while warning of risks ahead.
In its flagship World Economic Outlook (WEO) report – compiled before the most recent US-China tariff spat – the IMF hiked its 2025 global growth forecast to 3.2 percent, up from 3.0 in July, while leaving its prediction for 2026 unchanged at 3.1 per cent.
The IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters ahead of the publication of the WEO, that the growth impact of the trade shock is modest, adding that the private sector had also supported growth by responding to Trump's tariffs in an agile way.
Nigeria dropped from Africa's fastest-growing economies
Legit.ng earlier reported that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has excluded Nigeria from its latest list of Africa’s fastest-growing economies, despite recent improvements in the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) performance.
Abebe Selassie, the Director of the IMF’s African Department, disclosed this during the presentation of the Fund’s latest Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa on Thursday, October 17.
According to the IMF, Benin Republic, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Uganda are the world’s fastest-growing economies.
Source: Legit.ng
