Read Nigerian economy forecast 2016-2019
- The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) predict the state of Nigeria's economy during Buhari's tenure
- Harsh economic environment will result in annual growth smaller than in 2014, under the Jonathan administration
- Trade is expected to recover, but the year 2016 is already an 'F'
A report by the NBS, a key agency of the federal government in charge of economic research and development, titled "Nigerian Economy: Past Present and Future" was released this week. The 41-page document analyses the national economy between 2010 and 2015, gives a forecast for the 2016-2019 period.
The study focused on the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP), inflation and merchandise trade statistics.
The economic growth rate (GDP) will slowly recover, but it will not be able to reach the level of 2014 by the end of Buhari's tenure: 5.61% in 2019 vs 6.22% in 2014.
The report also estimates that the final figure of GDP's growth for the year 2015 is +2.97% only, as Nigeria suffered a lot from oil prices plunge.
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The authors of the report obviously hope that the global prices for oil stabilise and that the country adapts to live in new conditions of cheap crude oil.
Specific steps are already being developed by the Buhari cabinet in order to help the oil-dependant national economy. There is hope that infrastructure development would take shape and provide support for both the oil and non-oil sectors.
The issue of naira rate is reflected in the report too. Though it is not clear whether the authors took the possible devaluation into account or not, but they predict a higher inflation this year (10.16% in 2016 vs 9.55% in 2015). At the end of Buhari's first term, the inflation rate is expected to be comparable to the years of the Jonathan administration (8.54% in 2019 vs 8.5% in 2013).
The authors of the report predict a boom in trade in the year 2017, +31.11%, which means Nigeria will be selling much more than buying.