Nigeria’s Telecom Sector Set for 2026 Expansion, Comercio Partners Says
- Comercio Partners forecasts strong expansion for Nigeria’s telecoms sector in 2026, driven by rising data adoption, growing data consumption, and others
- The sector contributed about 9.2% to GDP in 2025, with MTN and Airtel maintaining dominance as internet subscriptions reached 144.8 million
- The firm projects 5–7% subscriber growth in 2026, supported by fibre expansion, policy initiatives and improved FX stability amid existing challenges
Legit.ng journalist Victor Enengedi has over a decade's experience covering energy, MSMEs, technology, banking and the economy.
Comercio Partners has projected a strong expansion phase for Nigeria’s telecommunications sector in 2026, signalling a clear transition from the consolidation and recovery cycle of 2025 to a period of accelerated growth.
In its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook titled, "Policy Shock to Structural Reset: Charting a Sustainable Economic Path", the investment firm said the industry is poised for a decisive leap forward, driven by rising data adoption, surging data consumption and the rapid adoption of enabling technologies such as 5G and fintech integrations.
The report noted that the sector demonstrated remarkable resilience in 2025, reinforcing its position as a leading non-oil contributor to the economy with an estimated 9 to 9.2% share of Nigeria’s GDP. Growth momentum was underpinned by regulatory reforms, increased digital demand and tariff adjustments that improved operators’ revenue profiles.
Source: UGC
Market leaders MTN Nigeria and Airtel Nigeria dominated performance, delivering strong year-to-date returns of 158.22% and 10%, respectively in 2025. Together, both operators control about 86% of the market and are expected to maintain their dominance in 2026 through data-focused growth strategies.
According to the report:
"Data pen*tration, which crossed the 50% broadband threshold in 2025 (reaching 50.58% by November), is expected to accelerate further in 2026, though the ambitious 70% target from the expiring National Broadband Plan (2020-2025) was missed, leaving room for policy-driven catch-up."
It added that by November 2025, internet subscriptions stood at 144.8 million, with teledensity rebounding to 81.8%, reflecting renewed consumer engagement and network expansion.
The firm projects subscriber growth of between 5% and 7% in 2026, supported by expanding fibre infrastructure, AI-powered platforms and government-backed initiatives such as Project Bridge.
Fibre pen*tration, currently below 20% regionally, is expected to increase significantly, deepening digital inclusion and strengthening the backbone of the digital economy.
Persistent Challenges in a Maturing Market
Despite the upbeat outlook, the report highlighted several structural constraints. Bridging the rural-urban connectivity gap remains a priority, particularly as broadband expansion continues to concentrate in major cities.
Operators also face mounting service quality complaints following tariff increases, alongside infrastructure vandalism and lingering coverage gaps.
Comercio Partners further pointed to the complexities of operating in a maturing duopolistic market, where competition concerns could intensify regulatory scrutiny. Infrastructure strain, affordability issues and the need for sustained capital expenditure in 4G and 5G networks remain pressing challenges.
However, the stabilisation of the naira and improved foreign exchange liquidity in 2025 have restored profitability and strengthened investor confidence.
The report stated:
"Overall, the sector’s growth story in 2025 and into 2026 is now one of resilience and acceleration: FX stability unlocked real earnings power, tariff hikes and data boom (with usage surging to record highs) drove revenue, and cost efficiencies (including tower lease renegotiations to reduce dollar exposure) strengthened margins."
Source: UGC
Revenue gains from higher data usage, cost efficiencies such as renegotiated tower leases to reduce dollar exposure, and steady infrastructure investments have positioned leading operators as defensive yet high-growth stocks on the Nigerian Exchange.
Comercio Partners concluded that 2026 is likely to cement telecommunications as a core driver of Nigeria’s digital economy. With mobile data serving as the backbone of urbanisation, fintech services and video streaming demand, the sector’s evolution from recovery to expansion signals cautious optimism for sustained growth and deeper economic impact.
Source: Legit.ng
