Nigeria's Smartphone Boom at Risk Over Sharp Shipment Decline and Soaring Costs in 2026
- Africa’s smartphone market grew strongly in 2025, with shipments rising 13 per cent to 84.4 million units, according to Omdia
- Rising component costs pushed average selling prices up by 11% in late 2025, and shipments are forecast to decline by 25% in 2026
- Nigeria recorded 25% shipment growth in Q4 2025, but its heavy reliance on entry-level smartphones leaves it vulnerable to price increases
Legit.ng journalist Victor Enengedi has over a decade's experience covering energy, MSMEs, technology, banking and the economy.
Africa’s smartphone market closed 2025 on a high note, but industry analysts warn that the gains could quickly reverse.
A fresh forecast indicates that shipments across the continent may plunge by nearly 25 per cent in 2026 as escalating component prices push up the cost of devices, particularly in the entry-level category.
Source: UGC
According to new data from Omdia, smartphone shipments in Africa climbed 14 per cent year-on-year to 23.1 million units in the fourth quarter of 2025. For the full year, total shipments reached 84.4 million units, reflecting a 13 per cent annual increase — the strongest rebound the market has recorded since 2021.
Analysts attributed the recovery to improved device financing schemes, relative currency stability in key markets, and aggressive year-end promotional campaigns.
However, rising production costs are beginning to squeeze the market. The average selling price of smartphones in Africa increased by 11 per cent in the last quarter of 2025, driven by higher bills of materials.
With component costs expected to remain elevated into 2026, further price hikes could weigh heavily on demand, particularly among first-time buyers and low-income consumers.
Nigeria’s Growth Masks Emerging Risks
Nigeria emerged as one of the fastest-growing markets in late 2025, with shipments expanding by 25 per cent in the fourth quarter. Much of this growth came from sustained demand for affordable 4G devices as internet usage deepened across the country.
Smartphones priced below $200 continued to account for the bulk of sales, highlighting the market’s dependence on budget-friendly models.
Yet this heavy concentration in the entry-level segment could now pose a challenge. With most Nigerian buyers clustered in the most price-sensitive category, they are especially exposed to global inflationary pressures and rising manufacturing costs.
Any significant jump in retail prices could quickly dampen demand in Africa’s most populous market.
Competition Intensifies as 2026 Outlook Darkens
Market leadership remained firmly in the hands of Transsion, the parent company of Tecno, Infinix, and Itel. The group held a commanding 44 per cent market share, although its growth slowed sharply to just three per cent.
Meanwhile, rivals with more diversified product portfolios are gaining ground. Samsung recorded its strongest quarterly performance since late 2021, posting 27 per cent growth on the back of its Galaxy A series and stronger cost-absorption capacity.
Xiaomi expanded shipments by 12 %through improved channel management, while OPPO rose 26 per cent to secure fifth position by focusing on mid-range and premium offerings.
Source: Getty Images
Despite the strong 2025 performance, the outlook for 2026 is considerably weaker. Omdia projects a 23 per cent year-on-year decline in shipments across Africa, marking a sharp correction after the recent rebound.
For Nigeria, where digital inclusion depends heavily on access to affordable devices, the projected downturn could slow momentum.
Distributors are expected to tighten inventory levels and limit exposure to slow-moving entry-tier models, potentially making low-cost smartphones harder to access in the year ahead.
Source: Legit.ng
