PwC Projects Naira to dollar Exchange Rate in 2026
- PwC Nigeria has projected that the naira will remain broadly stable against the US dollar in 2026
- The firm also forecasts stronger economic growth in 2026, with inflation expected to ease
- PwC warns that external shocks and capital flow reversals could still pose risks to currency stability
Legit.ng journalist Dave Ibemere has over a decade of experience in business journalism, with in-depth knowledge of the Nigerian economy, stocks, and general market trends.
PricewaterhouseCoopers(PWC) Nigeria, an advisory and tax services company, has projected that the naira will remain broadly stable against the US dollar in 2026, trading within the N1,440–1,500/$1 range.
The projection was included in the firm’s Economic Outlook 2026, which examines key trends likely to shape Nigeria’s economic landscape, including GDP growth, inflation, poverty, and monetary policy.
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According to the report, the expected stability of the naira is underpinned by ongoing Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) reforms and improved portfolio inflows, which have strengthened liquidity in the foreign exchange market.
PwC highlighted that easing inflation expectations and stronger reserves are also likely to support the local currency throughout the year.
FX risks remain
However, PwC warned that foreign exchange (FX) shocks remain a key risk to Nigeria’s economic stability.
Part of the report reads:
"FX shocks remain a key risk because a meaningful share of obligations is foreign-currency denominated, and depreciation raises the naira cost of servicing external debt and other FXlinked commitments."
The firm noted that currency volatility could quickly worsen debt metrics and place additional pressure on reserves, even without new borrowing.
The outlook comes as Nigeria continues to navigate challenging macroeconomic conditions. Rising inflation, high interest rates, and limited job creation have weighed on household welfare.
PwC poverty rate projection
PwC projects that despite economic growth, poverty could affect 62% of Nigerians, approximately 141 million people by the end of 2026.
While monetary policy easing and currency stability are positive developments, the firm emphasised that translating macroeconomic gains into tangible improvements in living standards will require stronger employment opportunities and income growth.
Source: UGC
GDP, Inflation, and interest rate projections
PwC expects Nigeria’s GDP to grow by 4.49% in 2026, up from 3.89% in 2025, driven by real sector productivity gains, trade surpluses, and crude oil exports.
Inflation is projected to moderate to 12.94%, while interest rates may gradually ease from the current 27%, reflecting a cautious shift toward disinflation without undermining macroeconomic stability.
Other risks and outlook for 2026
The report also highlights potential risks, including capital flow reversals and geopolitical tensions, which could weaken the naira and amplify imported inflation.
Despite these challenges, PwC remains cautiously optimistic, stressing that continued policy consistency and structural reforms will be critical to sustaining macroeconomic stability and supporting Nigeria’s economic growth trajectory in 2026.
SBM predicts naira’s exchange rate for 2026
Earlier, Legit.ng reported that SBM Intelligence projects that the naira will trade within a relatively narrow band of N1,470 to N1,520 per dollar throughout 2026.
The Africa-focused research firm said the projection is anchored on expectations of improved government earnings and steady crude oil output, which are key drivers of foreign exchange inflows and reserve build-up.
The naira has also remained relatively stable in both the official and parallel markets since the launch of the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System in December 2024.
Proofreading by James Ojo, copy editor at Legit.ng.
Source: Legit.ng
