FG Sets New Crude Oil Production Target for NNPC by December

• The federal government has a new crude oil production target of 2.5 million barrels per day for NNPC Ltd by December 2025
• The new oil production target exceeds the budget of 2 million bpd goal set earlier by President Tinubu
• Falling oil prices ($60/bbl vs $75 benchmark) and underproduction have threatened the 2025 projected revenue

Legit.ng journalist Dave Ibemere has over a decade of business journalism experience with in-depth knowledge of the Nigerian economy, stocks, and general market trends.

Heineken Lokpobiri, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil) has challenged the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) to reach crude oil production target to 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of 2025,.

The latest target surpasses the 2 million bpd earlier set by President Bola Tinubu.

Lokpobiri disclosed the new target while speaking on the sidelines of the Oil Technology Conference at the Africa Energy Forum in the United States.

He expressed optimism that the 2.5 million bpd goal is attainable as the federal government continues to tackle long-standing challenges such as pipeline vandalism and oil theft in the Niger Delta, NewsTelegraph reports.

Lokpobiri said:

“The 2.5 million bpd oil production is easily realisable because all the bottlenecks against our oil production are being addressed."

President Tinubu had earlier set a 2 million bpd production goal when he restructured the NNPC Ltd board in January, appointing Engr. Bashir Bayo Ojulari as Group Chief Executive Officer to replace Mallam Mele Kyari.

Nigeria falls short of its oil production quota

The minister’s announcement comes as Nigeria continues to fall short of its oil production quota under the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), posing a significant risk to the federal government’s revenue projections.

Nigeria’s oil production dropped to 1.401 million bpd in March, its lowest in 2025, according to OPEC’s direct communication figures.

This represents a decline of 64,000 bpd from 1.465 million bpd in February and 1.539 million bpd in January.

With crude oil prices falling to around $60 per barrel, well below the $75 benchmark used in Nigeria’s N54.99 trillion 2025 budget, analysts warn that the country could lose up to N19.6 trillion in projected oil revenue if current trends persist.

The revenue shortfall is further compounded by the weakening naira, which has dropped to about N1,600 per dollar, compared to the N1,500 exchange rate assumption in the budget.

Economic experts have projected that Nigeria’s fiscal deficit could balloon from the budgeted N13 trillion to as high as N30.79 trillion if the shortfalls in oil revenue and the naira’s devaluation are not quickly addressed.

NUPRC says crude oil theft reduced by 58.3%

Earlier, Legit.ng reported that the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) claimed that it improved daily crude production in Q1 2025, after curbing the activities of oil thieves.

The NUPRC, in a recent presentation, shared steps taken to cut down crude theft and reduce revenue losses

NEITI reported that Nigeria had lost over 701.48 million barrels from 2009, when it started keeping records, to 2024.

Proofreading by Kola Muhammed, copy editor at Legit.ng.

Source: Legit.ng