Why Food Prices Will Increase in Nigeria, Nine Other African countries

• The FAO projects sharp differences in food inflation across 160 countries in 2026
• Nigeria is expected to record the highest food inflation in Africa, followed by Angola
• Some African countries, including Niger and Liberia, are forecast to see declines in food prices

Oluwatobi Odeyinka is a business editor at Legit.ng, covering energy, the money market, technology and macroeconomic trends in Nigeria.

A new global food inflation outlook by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) projects wide differences in food price movements across 160 countries in 2026, with several African economies expected to record some of the highest increases globally.

The report, analysed by Visual Capitalist, ranks countries by projected year-on-year changes in food prices, indicating where households may face the greatest cost pressures in the coming year, Business Insider Africa reported.

According to the FAO, while some advanced economies are expected to see moderating or declining food prices, inflationary pressures remain concentrated in emerging and import-dependent markets, particularly across Africa.

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Below are African countries projected to record the highest food inflation in 2026.

1. Nigeria – 17.1%
2. Angola – 14.8%
3. Zambia – 10.8%
4. Ethiopia – 10.1%
5. Burundi – 8.8%
6. Cabo Verde – 7.2%
7. Cameroon – 7.0%
8. Kenya – 6.8%
9. Somalia – 6.7%
10. Tanzania – 6.7%

Nigeria is projected to record the highest food inflation rate among African countries listed, at 17.1%, followed by Angola at 14.8%.

Some African countries may see price declines

The FAO outlook also shows that not all African economies are expected to face rising food costs in 2026.

Countries projected to record food price declines include Niger (-18.1%), Liberia (-7.4%), Togo (-6.4%), Morocco (-2.8%), Chad (-2.6%), and Zimbabwe (-1.7%).

According to the report, these projected declines reflect improved harvests, greater currency stability, easing supply bottlenecks, statistical base effects, as well as monetary and fiscal interventions in some cases.

Why Africa appears at both extremes

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The FAO analysis highlights Africa’s presence at both ends of the food inflation spectrum, reflecting structural differences across economies.

Countries with high projected inflation, such as Nigeria and Angola, face challenges including heavy import dependence, exchange rate volatility, climate-related shocks, and security concerns, all of which contribute to upward pressure on food prices.

In contrast, countries expecting price declines benefit from improved agricultural output, more stable currencies, better-functioning supply chains, or favourable base effects.

The report suggests that food inflation trends across Africa are increasingly shaped by domestic economic management, agricultural productivity, and climate resilience, rather than global commodity price movements alone.

As 2026 approaches, the outlook indicates that while some households may continue to face rising food costs, others could experience temporary relief, depending largely on local economic and agricultural conditions.

Food inflation falls to single digit in Nigeria

Legit.ng earlier reported that Nigeria recorded a sharp fall in food inflation to 8.89%, the country’s lowest food inflation rate in a decade.

The drop offers a long-awaited relief to millions of households battling high living costs. Government policies and a stronger naira contributed to reduced staple food prices nationwide.

As published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), state-by-state analysis showed significant regional disparities in food inflation rates across Nigeria.

Source: Legit.ng