Dangote Group Predicts Naira’s Next Move Against Dollar, Forecast Q4 2026 Exchange Rate
- The Dangote Group predicts that the naira will trade at N1,330 per dollar in the fourth quarter of 2026, with a full-year average of N1,385/$.
- Rising foreign reserves, foreign investment inflows and lower fuel imports due to increased domestic refining are expected to support the currency.
- The World Bank also identified the naira as one of Africa’s more resilient currencies in Q2 2026, while Nigeria’s net foreign reserves reached $46 billion
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Legit.ng journalist Victor Enengedi has over a decade's experience covering energy, MSMEs, technology, banking and the economy
The Dangote Group expects the naira to trade at N1,330 per dollar in the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by rising foreign reserves, increased foreign investment and lower fuel import costs.
The projection is contained in the group’s Economic Research and Intelligence H1 2026 Economic Report, obtained by Nairametrics.
Source: UGC
Dangote Group projects stronger naira
According to the report, the outlook reflects improvements in Nigeria’s external position, attractive real interest rates that have drawn foreign portfolio investors and a lower fuel import bill as domestic refining capacity expands.
It noted that the naira appreciated by about 4% in the first half of 2026, trading around N1,380/$ in the official foreign exchange market before strengthening to approximately N1,330/$ in August.
The group expects the currency to average N1,385/$ for the full year, with quarterly projections pointing to further stability.
The report stated:
“Staff project the naira to hold its firmer level, averaging N1,405/$ in the second quarter, about N1,340/$ in the third and N1,330/$ in the fourth, for a full-year average close to N1,385/$.”
Lower fuel imports support foreign exchange stability
The expansion of domestic refining is expected to ease pressure on Nigeria’s demand for dollars by reducing the amount of foreign exchange required to import petrol and other refined petroleum products.
Lower fuel import requirements could help improve the country’s external balance and support the accumulation of foreign reserves, provided other foreign exchange inflows remain favourable.
Nigeria’s improving external position has also attracted attention amid efforts to stabilise the naira and restore investor confidence in the foreign exchange market.
Rising reserves boost investor confidence
The forecast comes amid improvements in Nigeria’s external reserves and foreign exchange market conditions.
Legit.ng had previously reported that the country’s net foreign reserves had reached a record $46 billion, helping to strengthen investor confidence.
Source: UGC
The World Bank also identified the naira as one of Africa’s more resilient currencies in the second quarter of 2026, noting that its maximum depreciation was limited to 2.6% during the period.
The Dangote Group’s forecast suggests that the naira could retain its recent strength through the end of 2026, although the actual exchange rate will depend on developments in foreign investment flows, reserve levels, oil earnings and demand for foreign exchange.
Source: Legit.ng
