Nigerian Businesses Predict Naira Will Appreciate Against Dollar by January 2027
- The CBN's July 2026 Business Expectations Survey captured how Nigerian businesses view the naira's direction over the coming months
- The Business Confidence Index stood at 5.7 points in July 2026, with increased demand and economic diversification among the key drivers
- Inflation topped the list of challenges facing businesses, accounting for 27.7% of concerns raised in the CBN survey
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Legit.ng journalist Dave Ibemere has over a decade of experience in business journalism, with in-depth knowledge of the Nigerian economy, stocks, and general market trends.
Nigerian businesses expect the naira to gradually gain ground against the US dollar between now and January 2027, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria's (CBN) July 2026 Business Expectations Survey, released on Thursday, August 7.
The apex bank said the overall Business Confidence Index (BCI) came in at 5.7 points in July 2026, reflecting continued positive sentiment among formal businesses despite ongoing macroeconomic pressures.
Source: Getty Images
What Is Driving Business Confidence
Three factors dominated businesses' reasons for optimism. Increased demand accounted for 22.3 per cent of responses, economic diversification represented 21.4 per cent, and improved access to finance made up 15.0 per cent.
Confidence remained positive across all broad sectors in July.
The Industry sector's index rose to 11.5 points from 10.5 points, while the Services sector climbed to 3.6 points from 2.9 points.
The Agriculture sector saw a sharp decline, dropping to 3.4 points from 12.2 points. The electricity, gas and water sector posted the highest Business Confidence Index at 59.4 points and recorded the strongest expansion prospects heading into August 2026.
Regionally, businesses in Northern Nigeria reported stronger confidence in July than those in the South, though the CBN said respondents across all regions maintained positive expectations for August.
Key Risks That Could Affect the Outlook
Despite the broadly optimistic tone, businesses flagged several challenges that could slow recovery. Inflation remained the dominant concern, accounting for 27.7 per cent of identified risks, Guardian reports.
Source: Getty Images
Energy-related challenges followed at 23.4 per cent, insecurity at 22.4 per cent, and heightened geopolitical uncertainties at 16.5 per cent.
The positive currency outlook sits alongside broader expectations of improved economic conditions over the months ahead, though the CBN cautioned that inflation, energy costs, insecurity and global uncertainties remain risks that could shape both the naira and the wider business environment through January 2027.
CBN makes fresh forex changes
Earlier, Legit.ng reported that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has maintained its $150,000 weekly foreign exchange purchase ceiling for Bureau De Change (BDC) operators, publishing new operational guidelines that govern how licensed BDCs can access dollars through authorised dealer banks in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM).
The regulatory guidance, addressed to authorised dealer banks and licensed BDC operators, details the procedures for implementing a February 10, 2026 circular that restored BDC access to the official foreign exchange market.
To support real-time oversight, the CBN has launched the FX BDC Purchase Tracker (FXBT).
Source: Legit.ng
