Petrol Prices May Drop in Nigeria as Private Depots Undercut Dangote on Falling Crude Oil
- Nigeria's downstream oil market signaled potential petrol price drop amid increased competition
- Private depots sold petrol below Dangote's benchmark, adjusting ex-depot prices
- Crude oil price drop fuelled optimism for lower domestic fuel costs and consumer relief
Pascal Oparada is a journalist with Legit.ng, covering technology, energy, stocks, investment, and the economy for over a decade.
Fresh signals from Nigeria’s downstream oil market point to a possible drop in petrol prices, as private depot operators begin selling below the rates set by Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals.
Market checks across Lagos on March 23, 2026, show that several private depots have adjusted their ex-depot prices downward for both petrol (PMS) and diesel (AGO), undercutting Dangote’s current gantry rates.
Source: Getty Images
This shift reflects intensifying competition among marketers and growing expectations of an imminent price review.
For petrol, major private depots such as Aiteo, Nipco, and 11Plc are now selling at ₦1,270 per litre, slightly below Dangote’s ₦1,275 benchmark.
According to data from PetroleumPriceNG, Diesel prices have also dipped across multiple depots, with rates ranging between ₦1,698 and ₦1,700 per litre, compared to Dangote’s ₦1,750.
Crude oil drop drives market expectations
The downward pressure on fuel prices is largely tied to developments in the global oil market. Earlier in the day, crude oil benchmarks, including Brent and WTI, fell by about 10%.
The drop came after geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz eased, which had previously driven up prices due to supply concerns.
With tensions cooling, the risk premium embedded in crude prices has weakened, triggering a market correction.
Industry sources say Dangote refinery’s pricing structure is closely linked to international crude oil benchmarks, meaning any sustained drop in global prices is likely to translate into lower domestic fuel costs.
Dangote pricing model under watch
A senior industry source familiar with operations at the Dangote refinery confirmed that crude oil remains the primary driver of its pricing decisions.
“Across recent adjustments, crude oil has consistently dictated the direction of gantry prices,” the source noted.
Based on current market conditions, analysts estimate that petrol prices could fall by as much as ₦100 per litre if crude prices remain at their current levels. While the exact timing of any adjustment remains uncertain, expectations of a reduction are already influencing market behaviour.
Marketers react to possible price cut
The anticipation of lower prices is reshaping trading strategies, particularly among depot owners and fuel marketers in Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial hub.
According to a Punch report, many operators are adjusting their pricing and inventory positions to avoid potential losses. The fear of being stuck with higher-priced stock has triggered early price cuts, even before any official adjustment from Dangote refinery.
“The expectation is that prices will come down. Nobody wants to be caught holding expensive stock,” a depot marketer said.
This cautious approach has intensified competition, with marketers opting for slimmer margins to maintain sales volume.
Outlook: Relief may be on the way
While exchange rates, logistics costs, and supply dynamics still play a role in fuel pricing, crude oil remains the dominant factor in the current cycle.
With global oil prices easing and geopolitical tensions subsiding, the likelihood of a downward adjustment in petrol and diesel prices appears strong.
If sustained, this trend could offer short-term relief to consumers and businesses grappling with high energy costs.
Source: Getty Images
For now, all eyes remain on Dangote refinery, whose next pricing move is expected to set the tone for the broader market.
Oil prices surge above $119 on Middle East tension
Legit.ng earlier reported that oil markets saw a sharp upswing on Thursday, with Brent crude oil climbing past $119 per barrel.
The spike was driven by escalating conflict in the Middle East, which unsettled global energy markets and heightened fears of supply interruptions.
The latest surge followed retaliatory strikes by Iran targeting key energy facilities after Israel attacked the South Pars gas field.
Source: Legit.ng
