NESG Releases Naira to Dollar Exchange Rate Projection for 2026
- NESG has projected the naira will trade around N1,480 to the US dollar in 2026 as macroeconomic reforms continue
- The outlook is supported by expectations of rising external reserves, easing inflation, and improved policy coordination across key sectors
- FX reforms, stronger liquidity, and disciplined implementation Identified to help stabilise the naira and support economic growth
Legit.ng journalist Dave Ibemere has over a decade of experience in business journalism, with in-depth knowledge of the Nigerian economy, stocks, and general market trends.
The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has projected that the naira will exchange at about N1,480 to the US dollar in 2026.
The projections were presented on Thursday in Lagos at the unveiling of the NESG’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, titled Consolidating Economic Stabilisation Gains: Pathway to Sustainable Growth in Nigeria.
Source: UGC
The exchange rate projection is supported by the private sector driven, non-profit policy think tank a steady build-up in Nigeria’s external reserves, which are expected to reach $52 billion.
Also, NESG expects inflation to moderate to around 16% in 2026, with a further decline to single-digit levels of between 8% and 10% in 2027.
Economic growth is forecast at approximately 5.5% in 2026, driven by improved policy coordination and stronger performance in key productive sectors of the economy.
NESG economic projection
Speaking at the event, NESG Chairman Olaniyi Yusuf said Nigeria is at a pivotal stage of its reform journey, where the focus must shift from managing short-term shocks to building durable systems capable of supporting long-term productivity and growth.
Yusuf explained that consolidation represents a critical medium-term phase in which macroeconomic stability must be reinforced and translated into tangible economic outcomes.
He described the process as the bridge between reform efforts and measurable results, noting that recent gains must now be intentionally deployed to address structural constraints limiting output, investment, and competitiveness.
said:
“For Nigeria, consolidation demands a change in approach. There must be a move from fragmented policymaking to coherence, from reactive measures to system-building, and from temporary solutions to stronger institutions.”
He added that the 2026 outlook identifies key pillars essential for successful consolidation, including proper policy sequencing, fiscal discipline, and realism in implementation. Yusuf cautioned that although reform fatigue poses a genuine risk, reversing reforms would carry significantly higher economic costs.
Yusuf noted:
“The task ahead is to remain committed while improving the quality and effectiveness of implementation."
He stressed that the NESG will continue to support the reform agenda through data-driven analysis, sustained public–private engagement, and continuous evaluation of outcomes.
Source: Getty Images
Yusuf further noted that Nigeria’s economic performance in 2024 and 2025 was shaped by major policy adjustments aimed at correcting longstanding distortions in the foreign exchange market, energy pricing, and monetary conditions.
he said:
“These changes were difficult but necessary."
Also speaking at the launch, Olusegun Omisakin, NESG’s Chief Economist and Director of Research and Development, said the 2026 projections are anchored in the group’s medium-term macroeconomic framework, which extends through 2029.
He explained that the outlook places significant emphasis on agriculture and manufacturing as key drivers of growth, noting that productivity gains in these sectors could support economic expansion of about 5.5% in 2026, BusinessDay reports.
Omisakin said:
“Our estimates are consistent with our medium-term framework covering 2026 to 2029. By prioritising agriculture and manufacturing, we believe the economy can grow by 5.5% in 2026, building on an estimated 5% growth recorded in 2025 under an optimistic scenario.”
Yemi Kale's naira projection
Earlier, Legit.ng reported that Yemi Kale, Chief Economist at the Africa Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), gave a projection on the naira while delivering the keynote address at FirstBank Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026.
Kale outlined scenario-based forecasts for the USD/NGN exchange rate, including oil prices, foreign-exchange (FX) inflows, inflation trends, and policy consistency.
Under a baseline scenario, Kale expects the naira to remain under pressure but avoid sharp collapse, trading around N1,313 per dollar by June and approximately N1,340 by December 2026.
Proofreading by James Ojo, copy editor at Legit.ng.
Source: Legit.ng
