Senate Confirms CBN Exchange Rate for 2026, Cuts Oil Price Projection
- Lawmakers have approved the CBN’s exchange rate projection for 2026 captured in the 2026–2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF)
- President Bola Tinubu had submitted it ahead of the presentation of the 2026 Appropriation Bill to a joint session of the National Assembly
- The Senate reduced the 2026 crude oil price benchmark to $60 per barrel, citing geopolitical tensions and global price volatility
Legit.ng journalist Dave Ibemere has over a decade of experience in business journalism, with in-depth knowledge of the Nigerian economy, stocks, and general market trends.
Nigeria’s Senate has approved the Central Bank of Nigeria’s exchange rate projections for 2026 as part of the 2026–2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP).
The MTEF provides economic and fiscal analyses that form the basis for the budget planning process.
Source: UGC
CBN naira projection
Under the approved framework, the Senate confirmed the Central Bank of Nigeria exchange rate projection of N1,512 per dollar for 2026.
The Central Bank of Nigeria projected that the naira would average N1,432.15 per dollar in 2027 and appreciate further to N1,383.18 per dollar in 2028.
According to the CBN, the outlook is based on improved efficiency in the foreign exchange market, an appropriate monetary policy stance and increased foreign exchange supply.
The bank also cited ongoing measures to curb speculation, including the enforcement of a foreign exchange code of conduct and a revised FX manual.
The apex bank said:
"This expectation is based on more efficient foreign exchange market, appropriate monetary policy stance, and improved foreign exchange supply due to sustained rebound of economic activities, growing non-oil exports, stronger remittances inflow, and increased domiciliary account conversions.
"Current efforts towards effective oil sector management are expected to increase oil production and significantly contribute to the achievement of the medium-term target. Measures are in place to prevent speculative activity and the central bank has embedded best practices into the market’s operational framework, including foreign exchange code of conduct and revised foreign exchange manual."
Senate approves $60 per barrel
The Senate reduced the 2026 crude oil benchmark price to $60 per barrel from the $64.85 proposed by the executive, while approving $65 and $70 per barrel for 2027 and 2028, respectively.
Vanguard reports that lawmakers said the adjustment reflected heightened geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East and continued volatility in global oil markets.
Despite the more conservative oil price assumption, the Senate retained crude oil production targets of 1.84 million barrels per day for 2026, 1.88 million barrels per day for 2027 and 1.92 million barrels per day for 2028, citing ongoing reforms in the oil and gas sector and efforts to stabilise output.
Source: Getty Images
Snapshot of projections in the MTEF
- Total federal expenditure (2026): N54.46 trillion
- Inflation projections:
- 2026: 16.5%
- 2027: 13%
- 2028: 9%
- Real GDP growth projections:
- 2026: 4.68%
- 2027: 5.96%
- 2028: 7.9%
- Fiscal operations:
- Retained revenue: N34.33 trillion
- New borrowings: N17.88 trillion
- Debt service obligations: N15.52 trillion
- Fiscal deficit: N20.13 trillion
- Allocations:
- Pensions & retirees’ benefits: N1.376 trillion
- Capital expenditure (excluding transfers): N20.131 trillion
- Statutory transfers: N3.152 trillion
- Sinking fund: N388.54 billion
- Recurrent non-debt expenditure: N15.265 trillion
Rewane projects closing exchange rate
Earlier, Legit.ng reported that Bismarck Rewane, CEO of Financial Derivatives Company, has projected that the naira could end 2025 at around N1,492 per US dollar.
He attributed the optimistic forecast to factors such as increased domestic corporate debt, inflows from the diaspora, remittances, and the potential issuance of a Eurobond.
These developments, he noted, are expected to boost dollar availability and ease pressure on the exchange rate.
Proofreading by James Ojo, copy editor at Legit.ng.
Source: Legit.ng
