4 Key Reasons Crude Oil Prices Are Spiking Above $100 Per Barrel Amid Tensions in Middle East
Oil prices have entered a state of "shock mode," and the market is responding as it typically does when supply risks become tangible. Brent crude futures settled at above $114 on March 9, 2026, after trading as high as $119, and they had already pushed above $110 on March 8.
That is a major change from just two weeks ago. Oil prices were still in the low $70s on February 27, and it only started to accelerate when geopolitical risk around Middle East shipping routes turned into an active disruption, according to EBC Financial Group.
Source: UGC
For historical context, oil prices surged above $110 and even reached $120 at times in 2022, during the post-pandemic demand rebound and the shock of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Therefore, Goldman Sachs predicts that oil prices could reach $150 if disruptions persist and supply flows remain significantly restricted.
4 main reasons behind oil prices spike above $110
1. The Strait of Hormuz risk has gone from theory to pricing
Oil is a global commodity, but it still moves through narrow physical routes. The Strait of Hormuz is the biggest of them all.
The EIA estimates oil flows through the Strait averaged about 20 million barrels per day in 2024, which is around 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption.
Additionally, the EIA states that the Strait of Hormuz is a crucial chokepoint with very few alternative routes available if it were to be blocked.
When a route like that is questioned, traders do not wait for perfect confirmation. They bid up crude because the cost of being wrong is huge for refiners, airlines, and nations that rely on imports.
2. Shipping conditions can tighten supply even before production falls
Even if oil exists on paper, it is of no use if it cannot move freely. The significant drop in traffic occurred as insurers reduced war-risk coverage, leading to higher freight costs as vessels slowed or diverted.
Such disruption can lead to a "phantom shortage," where supply is available but delayed in practice. In the short term, delays behave like lost barrels.
3. The market is rebuilding a large risk premium very quickly
Oil prices often include a "risk premium," which is an extra price added for uncertainty. In calm times, that premium is small. In war-driven times, it can expand fast.
Once the market starts to believe disruption may last weeks instead of days, the premium can jump again.
4. Momentum and positioning can turn a spike into a squeeze
When a market moves 15% to 25% in a day, mechanics matter. Traders who were short crude often rush to cover. Risk models force funds to cut exposure or hedge.
Options dealers adjust. All of that can add fuel to price action even if the underlying news has not changed hour to hour.
You can see the speed of repricing in the settlements. Brent moved from around $77.74 (March 2) to over $114 (March 9) over the five trading sessions shown in the historical table.
The question now is simple and urgent: is $150 possible, or does the market run out of fuel before it gets there?
Is $150 oil really possible?
To note, $150 is not a base case. It is a stress case. That said, history shows it is not impossible. Brent reached an all-time high near $147.50 in 2008, and Brent also averaged well above $110 during parts of 2022.
The critical issue lies at Hormuz, where approximately 20 million barrels per day typically flow through the Strait. Alternative routes are limited and cannot fully replace this volume.
$150 is possible, but it likely requires sustained disruption that forces real production shutdowns and keeps shipping unsafe for weeks, which is why the next signals to watch are tanker movement, insurance, and storage pressure, not only political messaging.
Source: Getty Images
US-Iran-Israel war affects Nigeria
Meanwhile, Legit.ng earlier reported that the escalating tensions in the Middle East are sending concerns through Nigeria's economy, with fuel prices alleged to skyrocket.
Economist Paul Alaje warns that the conflict could push petrol prices to higher levels, spelling trouble for households and businesses alike.
Nigerians who listened to the economist speaking during a recent interview had different things to say in the comments section.
Source: Legit.ng
