No Longer an Importer? Nigeria’s Fuel Exports Jump 44% as $3.42bn Surplus Signals Turning Point
- Nigeria's current account surplus narrows to $3.42bn despite a rise in crude oil exports
- Refined petroleum product exports surged by 44% driven by increased domestic refining capacity
- Remittances continue to cushion external pressures amidst evolving trade dynamics
Nigeria’s external sector recorded another surplus in the third quarter of 2025, buoyed by a sharp rise in crude oil and refined petroleum product exports, reinforcing signs that the country is edging closer to becoming a net fuel exporter.
However, the latest figures from the Central Bank of Nigeria also reveal growing pressure beneath the surface, as the overall current account surplus narrowed significantly compared with the previous quarter.
Source: Getty Images
Current account surplus narrows despite export gains
According to the CBN’s Q3 2025 Balance of Payments Highlights, Nigeria posted a current account surplus of $3.42bn in the third quarter of the year.
While this kept the country in positive territory, it represented a 41.14 per cent drop from the $5.81bn surplus recorded in Q2 2025.
The figure was also lower than the $5.78bn surplus achieved in the same period of 2024, underscoring the fragility of the country’s external buffers.
The apex bank noted that the balance of payments “remained in surplus, supported largely by higher crude oil and refined petroleum product exports,” even as broader pressures reduced the size of the surplus.
Crude oil exports strengthen in Q3
Crude oil exports rose from $7.66bn in the second quarter to $8.45bn in Q3 2025, representing a 10.31 per cent increase.
The improvement reflected better crude evacuation, relatively stable global oil prices, and efforts by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and upstream operators to stabilise production.
Measures to improve pipeline security, curb oil theft, and reduce shut-ins also contributed to the stronger performance during the quarter.
Refined fuel exports surge 44%
The most striking development was in refined petroleum products. Exports surged by 44.03 per cent, climbing from $1.59bn in Q2 to $2.29bn in Q3 2025.
Analysts link the jump to increased domestic refining capacity, driven largely by the gradual ramp-up of privately owned refineries, led by the Dangote Refinery.
This export growth marks a major shift for an economy long dependent on imported fuel and signals early progress in the Federal Government’s push to end fuel import reliance.
Fuel imports decline, trade pressure eases
At the same time, Nigeria’s imports of refined petroleum products fell by 12.7 per cent, declining from $1.89bn in Q2 to $1.65bn in Q3.
The CBN identified the combination of rising fuel exports and lower imports as a key factor supporting the current account surplus during the quarter.
The reduction eased pressure on the trade balance and helped offset weaknesses in other parts of the external account.
Remittances cushion external pressures
Despite the oil-sector boost, the overall surplus narrowed due to higher outflows in other components of the current account.
The CBN pointed to rising services and primary income outflows, exchange-rate adjustments, and stronger import demand outside the petroleum sector.
Nigeria, however, continued to benefit from a strong secondary income account, estimated at $5.50bn, largely driven by diaspora remittances, which helped cushion the impact of weaker balances elsewhere.
Gains highlight progress and persistent risks
According to a report by Punch, the third-quarter figures come amid ongoing foreign exchange reforms, fuel subsidy removal, and renewed efforts to expand non-oil exports.
While the surge in refined fuel exports and declining imports point to meaningful structural progress, the sharp quarter-on-quarter drop in the surplus highlights lingering vulnerabilities.
Source: Getty Images
Sustaining a strong external position will depend on locking in oil-sector gains, controlling import growth, deepening non-oil exports, and maintaining steady remittance inflows.
As fuel exports rise and imports fall, policymakers are under pressure to turn this momentum into a lasting shift in Nigeria’s trade and external accounts.
Dangote Refinery rolls out 10-day credit
Legit.ng earlier reported that Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market is seeing another major shake-up as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery unveils a new supply arrangement designed to ease pressure on petrol station owners and dealers nationwide.
In a move that could reshape fuel distribution dynamics, the refinery has introduced a 10-day credit facility backed by bank guarantees, alongside free direct delivery of petrol to registered outlets.
According to a statement released by the Dangote Group on Tuesday, December 30, 2025, via its official X handle, the new initiative allows participating petrol dealers to access fuel on credit for up to 10 days.
Source: Legit.ng
