3 Major Reasons Adeleke Won Osun Guber Election, Analyst Explains
- Governor Ademola Adeleke won the August 15, 2026 Osun governorship election after defecting from the PDP to the Accord Party
- A public affairs analyst identified incumbency, voter trust in infrastructure delivery, and the Davido factor as key drivers of the outcome
- The result is seen as a blow to the APC in the Southwest and raises fresh concerns about the PDP's grip on its political figures ahead of 2027
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Legit.ng journalist Adekunle Dada has over 8 years of experience covering metro, government policy, and international issues
Public affairs analyst Donald Okwuosa said that Governor Ademola Adeleke's decision to leave the PDP before the Osun gubernatorial election was a defining move.
Okwuosa said internal divisions had weakened the PDP, which he attributed to the influence of APC operatives working to destabilise Adeleke from within.
Source: Twitter
He said by switching to Accord while retaining his status as sitting governor, Adeleke preserved his political identity without being dragged into a damaging party crisis.
He stated this during an exclusive chat with Legit.ng on the assessment of the outcome of the Osun guber election.
Incumbency and personal brand
Okwuosa pointed to three factors that shaped the result. First, incumbency and the defection strategy worked together.
Adeleke's name recognition as a serving governor proved more powerful than his party affiliation, suggesting that in Osun's political environment, the individual still outweighs the platform.
During his campaign, Adeleke told supporters: "NO SHAKING, Imole is coming back," projecting confidence in his record.
Second, visible infrastructure delivery in key strongholds including Osogbo, Ilesha, Iwo, and Ede helped consolidate voter loyalty. Okwuosa noted that residents in these areas backed Adeleke because of tangible projects rather than party loyalty alone, and that support from entertainer Davido contributed to his appeal.
The third factor was the conduct of the election itself. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) deployed the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and transmitted results to the IReV portal, the same framework used in Ekiti State.
Okwuosa flagged vote buying as the most alarming issue going into the poll, but commended Osun voters for remaining at polling units to protect their ballots.
Implications for 2027
The analyst said Adeleke's victory on a new party platform disrupts the APC's strategy in the Southwest ahead of the 2027 general elections, adding to losses the party has suffered in the region.
For the PDP, the loss of a sitting governor to another party signals deeper instability within its structures.
Okwuosa also noted that President Bola Tinubu losing influence in his home region, combined with existing tensions between his administration and the Adeleke family and public remarks by Davido suggesting the family would not back Tinubu for the presidency, creates a political problem Tinubu will need to address before 2027.
On the electoral process, Okwuosa called on INEC to replicate the Osun template at the national level, saying the election restored some public confidence.
"No more 'Glitch in Server' or 'BVAS malfunctioning' come 2027."
Source: Instagram
Nigerians react as INEC declares Adeleke winner
Earlier, Legit.ng also reported that INEC's returning officer declared Accord candidate Ademola Adeleke the winner of the Osun State governorship election
Adeleke polled 511,067 votes against APC's Bola Oyebamiji, who scored 444,815 votes in the keenly contested poll.
Nigerians took to social media to share strong reactions to the result, with many linking the outcome to the 2027 general elections.
Source: Legit.ng
