Dangote Refinery Hits Petrol Production Snag as Key Unit Disrupts Output
- Dangote Petroleum Refinery faces ongoing technical challenges delaying full stabilisation until mid-2026
- RFCC outages limit gasoline production despite adequate crude distillation capacity, affecting overall output
- Reliance on gasoline imports continues as refinery's operational constraints hamper internal production capabilities
The much-anticipated ramp-up of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has hit another hurdle, as persistent technical challenges at its petrol-producing unit continue to cap output and delay full stabilisation into the first half of 2026.
According to Kpler & IIR analysis and trade-flow data reviewed by Petroleumprice.ng, the refinery’s Residual Fluid Catalytic Cracker (RFCC) has emerged as the single biggest operational bottleneck, limiting gasoline production despite ample crude distillation capacity.
Source: UGC
RFCC outages delay full stabilisation
The 200,000-barrels-per-day RFCC has suffered repeated outages since April 2025.
While a restart was initially expected in early February, market sources now say the unit may not return until around 10 February, with risks of further delays still present.
As a result, analysts believe reliable, steady-state operations remain several months away, pushing back expectations of a smooth and sustained production ramp-up.
Crude runs stay below capacity
Crude processing levels remain well below the refinery’s nameplate capacity. January crude runs are estimated at 280,000 to 300,000 barrels per day, with projections showing only a modest increase to 300,000–320,000 bpd in February due to ongoing RFCC constraints.
A planned one-week maintenance shutdown of the crude distillation unit (CDU) in early February adds to the stop-start nature of operations.
Trade data also reveal a slowdown in crude imports during January, while exports of Low Sulphur Straight Run (LSSR) products have increased to about 120,000 bpd month-to-date, highlighting the impact of limited conversion capacity on product flows.
At current run rates, implied January output is estimated at:
- 95,000 bpd of gasoline
- 120,000 bpd of middle distillates
These figures reflect what the refinery can sustain without a fully reliable RFCC, rather than its full potential.
Gasoline output supported by imports
Despite the RFCC issues, Dangote has managed to sustain gasoline supply by relying on other secondary units, such as the Continuous Catalytic Reformer (CCR) and isomerisation units, alongside rising imports of gasoline blending components.
Vessel-tracking data show that gasoline component imports climbed to about 45,000 bpd in January, helping maintain PMS availability even as internal upgrading capacity remains constrained.
This underscores that import substitution remains partial at this stage of operations.
Lighter crude strategy has limits
To ease operational stress, the refinery has shifted toward a lighter crude slate, averaging 37–39 API gravity since the fourth quarter of 2025.
While this supports CDU-linked secondary units and reduces disruption risks, analysts caution that crude quality optimisation alone cannot unlock higher sustained runs.
Ultimately, throughput above 320,000 bpd remains dependent on RFCC stability, not crude availability.
H1 2026 outlook: Gains, but gradual
Base-case projections assume the RFCC begins a gradual ramp-up from late February, allowing average runs of about 350,000 bpd in Q1 2026 and 400,000 bpd across the first half of the year.
Source: UGC
Under this scenario, gasoline output could rise to 120,000 bpd in Q1 and 150,000 bpd by mid-2026.
However, analysts warn that risks remain skewed to the downside. For Nigeria’s fuel market, Dangote’s impact in H1 2026 is expected to be meaningful but incomplete, with supply gains arriving gradually rather than through a dramatic step-change.
Dangote petrol N44 cheaper than imported fuel
Legit.ng earlier reported that Dangote Refinery is offering petrol at prices lower than imported fuel, intensifying competition in the country’s petroleum market.
The refinery’s ex-depot price remains at N699 per litre, while the landing cost of imported premium motor spirit (PMS) has fluctuated between N750 and N780 per litre, according to the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN).
In its latest bulletin on Thursday, January 15 MEMAN reported that the landing cost dropped to N754.96 from N758 last week.
Source: Legit.ng
